Evidence of meeting #12 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 41st Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was opposition.
A recording is available from Parliament.
5:05 p.m.
NDP
The Vice-Chair NDP Paul Dewar
Thank you.
Thank you to all of our witnesses.
I'll turn it over to the official opposition.
Madame Laverdière, you have seven minutes.
5:05 p.m.
NDP
Hélène Laverdière NDP Laurier—Sainte-Marie, QC
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
Thank you to all of you for your testimony.
Mr. Heidebrecht, thank you very much for your presentation, which was very interesting. I am particularly impressed with what you do to promote a culture of peace. Here we talk about ''peace building''. I would be pleased if we could hear more about that some day.
I also noted your appeal to greater diplomatic involvement in controlling the flood of weapons into the region. The financial aspect must of course also be considered. The amount of money we can allocate to help resolve the terrible situation in Syria is one issue, but there is also the process to be considered.
Over the past few weeks, several people involved in this file have told me that the process lacked clarity, among other reasons because they are often asked to reply to calls for proposals quickly, but then do not know when the money will come, when the projects will be approved and when it will be possible to implement the programs.
Can you tell me if you have encountered this situation in one way or another, and especially what more we could do to improve the fluidity of the process?
5:05 p.m.
Director, Ottawa Office, Mennonite Central Committee Canada
Thank you very much for the question.
Mr. Chair, I'll defer to my colleague Bruce to give a bit more of an in-depth response.
As I understand the nature of the question, it centres on the funding process with the Government of Canada for MCC or other NGO responses to the Syrian crisis.
5:05 p.m.
Bruce Guenther Director, Disaster Response, Mennonite Central Committee Canada
Thanks very much for your question.
We were very encouraged that the Government of Canada...that in the last year there have been four different opportunities where we have submitted proposals. In total we have submitted eight.
There are a couple of ways in which this could be improved. The timing of the decision could be more predictable. Oftentimes the humanitarian scene is shifting, so needs are very particular to one time. With an average of two to three months in the decision-making time, the situation changes on the ground.
As well, oftentimes the needs are seasonally based. What we're currently doing now for winterization is happening in February. We would like to have had those distributions happen sooner.
All of that said, with the last four decisions that have been taken, we are moving in the right direction in terms of a timely decision.
5:10 p.m.
NDP
Hélène Laverdière NDP Laurier—Sainte-Marie, QC
Thank you very much.
Your point is well taken indeed about it being seasonal. If you prepare for winter, you have to do it during the fall, ideally.
I would also like to hear a bit more about your program on trauma healing in Syria.
5:10 p.m.
Director, Disaster Response, Mennonite Central Committee Canada
We have undertaken trauma healing training both for refugees in Lebanon and for community leaders for people in Syria. That is twofold.
One is a training of trainers for people who come into contact frequently with internally displaced people or refugees. That also functions as a respite for people who are humanitarian workers. In one way, it is a training of trainers on trauma healing, and it also functions as psychosocial support for people who carry a very heavy burden. I think of Bishop Selwanos in the city of Homs, the Orthodox bishop there, who buries many people during the week. How can we best support him in thinking about a respite that we can also provide there?
In terms of the training, one of the additional things, aside from specific training on psychosocial support, is support for education. What we've learned from this conflict and from other conflicts we're involved with is that it is important to keep kids in school and to try to establish as much of a routine as possible. We would also see the education support we're providing as having the primary objective of being a psychosocial support to those children.
5:10 p.m.
NDP
Hélène Laverdière NDP Laurier—Sainte-Marie, QC
Indeed, I think this is a common preoccupation with what we call the lost generation of children, who are affected psychologically and who also very often are missing their basic education.
Coming back to adults, I know that you have partners in Syria, notably, churches and religious partners. We've seen some attacks and we hear about attacks on religious representatives and leaders. How do you feel about the safety of your partners in Syria?
5:10 p.m.
Director, Disaster Response, Mennonite Central Committee Canada
That's a very good question.
For sure, the safety of the humanitarian workers in Syria is a real concern. To clarify, we do work with church partners. We work with ecumenical partners in a variety of faith-based groups in Syria and outside Syria. In the last month actually, during a distribution that was happening in the south, in Durah, two humanitarian workers with the Middle East Council of Churches were killed when they were caught up in mortar fire.
So yes, for sure we fear for their safety. The commitment and effort of these volunteers is courageous. They would say that they have no choice but to do that work.
When we work with our partners, we definitely stress that they need to err on the side of safety and remain flexible in terms of when the distributions take place, but because they know the community and they have knowledge of the local community governance, they are able to have a heads-up about potential incidents and to work at alternative security measures in those areas. That's the real benefit in those areas of having those strong relationships that are connected to a variety of people in the community.
5:10 p.m.
NDP
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
Peter Goldring Conservative Edmonton East, AB
Thank you very much, gentlemen, for appearing here today.
It's not a very encouraging situation at all.
I'd like to ask a question of Dr. Landis that's a little bit more on the military logistics, if I may.
You mentioned in your paper that the opposition is fielding some 100,000 fighters. What is the number that the government has fielded in their military, their raw number in their military?
5:10 p.m.
As an Individual
Now, these numbers are completely made up, but I put them in there because nobody knows the numbers. I just want you to know that this is completely made up, and that any numbers you do see are largely made up, because these militias are shifting in numbers all the time.
The general number for the Islamic Front is 50,000 to 60,000, but it could be off by 20,000. This is the problem. They don't give out counts. They all give out counts that are way too high. If you used their own counts, it would probably be 250,000 for each of them. The militias all exaggerate.
For the Syrian government, it's very hard to know. Andrew may be able to chime in here and help me. The Syrian army was at perhaps 400,000 people before this conflict began. Many of the Sunni recruits have fallen away. The government doesn't trust many of them anyway—they're sort of the rank and file—because it's become such a sectarian war. What they've done is they've turned to Alawites, Christians, and other minorities, which they have filled the ranks of the military with. The officer corps is very highly sectarian in order to preserve loyalty. This is why the military has not left.
5:15 p.m.
Conservative
5:15 p.m.
As an Individual
Yes. They get help from Hezbollah from Lebanon, particularly in the battles that are right next to Lebanon's border. We saw in Qusayr a big Hezbollah piling on. Hezbollah has been training and giving advice. So has Iran. Iran has been training, and there have been Iranian soldiers in Syria. It is getting considerable help, advice, and support...and also from Iraq. Wherever there are Shiites, they are volunteering. That is the sort of pan-sectarian element to this.
5:15 p.m.
Conservative
Peter Goldring Conservative Edmonton East, AB
Would it be fair to say that the numbers of the regime could well be four to five times the numbers of the rebels?
5:15 p.m.
As an Individual
No, I don't think so. The regime forces, probably—the good forces—might number only 60,000 to 70,000 men in their really trusted elite, but there are a lot of other people. They have developed the militias.
February 12th, 2014 / 5:15 p.m.
Conservative
Peter Goldring Conservative Edmonton East, AB
I guess what I am driving at here is that this would be the manpower situation, the boots on the ground, I guess you could say. Also, they have the advantage of having fighter aircraft, helicopters, tanks, and artillery as well. It is a David and Goliath sort of thing, you might say, because I would think the opposition members, as you've mentioned, have small arms.
Do they have anything like “point and shoot”, those aircraft missiles that take down aircraft? Do they have anything in heavier armament at all?
5:15 p.m.
As an Individual
They do have some heavy arms, and they are getting more all the time. They have lots of mortars, and they are getting some tanks. Particularly, they have mounted guns on the backs of pickup trucks; that's the big new element. They have a lot of shoulder-held rockets, but not a lot of anti-aircraft, not enough. They've taken down quite a few helicopters and other things with shoulder-held stuff, but they don't have a real flow.
This is not Afghanistan, where Stinger missiles destroyed the Soviet army. The west has not wanted to let those in, because they know they could get into the hands of al-Qaeda. They have put a lot of pressure on Saudi Arabia and other allies of the rebels not to allow this advanced anti-aircraft weaponry to get into their hands. That has crippled the Syrian...[Technical Difficulty—Editor]
5:15 p.m.
As an Individual
Well, we saw a big supply come in from Croatia. It was bought and flown in from Croatia on Saudi planes to Jordan and funnelled across the border. There have been guns from all over the globe coming in. There is a big arms bazaar in Turkey. Tons of Libyan arms came in. There were accusations that the CIA had helped funnel those arms in, and Saudi Arabia, and so forth. Qatar was helping with a lot of arms to begin with. There are arms coming in from every direction.
5:15 p.m.
Conservative
Peter Goldring Conservative Edmonton East, AB
Would you say, then, that this is a war that is going to be going on for a long time? If it continues this way, it's more a war of attrition, with starvation and with the heavy guns on one side. Is there any reason why the president of the regime should even step down? This makes it sound as though it is inevitable that he is going to win.
5:15 p.m.
As an Individual
That's the regime's side and that's the Russian side. There are even people in Washington.... We have heard it from a number of people. Ex-CIA head Hayden said that the regime should win, because we don't want what comes next, which is going to be worse. Ryan Crocker, one of our top diplomats, said something similar.
That is not a majority opinion. I think it is a strong opinion in intelligence and on the military side, because they see the rebels as being too dangerous and think that if the rebels conquer all Syria, Syria will become a failed state and they will be encouraging the people they were fighting against in Iraq. Other people say that Assad is much worse than the rebels, that he is the kind of tyrant who is killing people in bigger numbers and is more responsible for killing people, and that America should get rid of him.
I believe that Assad cannot win and reconquer all of Syria, because of the ethnic component and the minoritarian situation. I think that what is going to happen and what I think America should do is encourage a ceasefire. That would leave rebels in control of the north and Assad in control of the south and west. The difficulty would then be to get the rebels to try to create a regime that the west likes. If they could create one half of Syria that was friendly, then perhaps the rest of Syria would want to join in, like West Germany.
5:20 p.m.
NDP
The Vice-Chair NDP Paul Dewar
Thank you, Mr. Landis.
We will go over to Mr. Garneau.
You have seven minutes.
5:20 p.m.
Liberal
Marc Garneau Liberal Westmount—Ville-Marie, QC
First of all, thank you to MCC for all the hard work you've been doing in the area for the past few decades.
I'm going to direct my questions to Mr. Tabler and Mr. Landis. I have the same two questions for both of you, so if we're going to get through them, I'm going to ask you to be succinct.
The picture you are both drawing is a picture of an endless stalemate, possibly a war of attrition. The regime change pressure is not working; al-Assad has no intention of stepping down. Russia seems to continue to be a solid backer, not to mention China and Iran.
Mr. Tabler, you have raised the point that one of the things that may be needed is military intervention by other countries', western countries', use of drones and cruise missiles. Do you believe that this is ultimately going to be necessary to break this stalemate?
I would like Mr. Landis as well to respond.
Remember that I have another question after this.
5:20 p.m.
Senior Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Specifically, my major concern is that we need to get chemical weapons out of Syria, period. I think there's international consensus on that and that this is the reason President Barack Obama, a man who has a very hard time using military power, threatened to use it. We saw how that played out.
There was an agreement to rid Syria of chemical weapons: 500 tonnes in the first shipment, which was due out at the end of last year, and another 700 tonnes due out by the beginning of February. Those were always ambitious targets, and al-Assad has until June 30 to meet them. The big problem we have is that Assad is revising his commitments to the OPCW.
The conflict that we have just described is not just staying in Syria; it has not only metastasized, but has also been spreading to neighbouring countries. The way this really becomes a major threat across the globe is if it is accented by and carried through the use of chemical weapons, whether by the Assad regime or through those that would fall into the hands of the rebels. That's the primary concern.
To be succinct, the use of these offset assets and drone strikes is part of a counterterrorism aspect, and I have advocated developing plans. Using those things in the long term is very issue specific. I don't advocate it loosely, and it would depend on what the situation is, but I think we're looking at a very dire situation going forward in which such assets might have to be used overtly or covertly.