Evidence of meeting #27 for Subcommittee on International Human Rights in the 41st Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was iran.

A video is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Mark Dubowitz  Executive Director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Ali Alfoneh  Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

1:50 p.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative Scott Reid

Thank you, Mr. Cotler. We let that one go over for a little bit because it's such a fulsome answer.

Mr. Sweet, you're next.

1:50 p.m.

Conservative

David Sweet Conservative Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale, ON

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Thanks to the witnesses for being here today.

Mr. Dubowitz, by the way, the other thing that is memorable about President Reagan is that he not only said “trust, but verify” but all through the vast majority of the negotiations, he never stopped saying that it was an evil empire that he was negotiating with, until he was challenged in Reykjavik, but that's another story. It brings to mind the reality of how you have to go into these negotiations with the whole mindset of what's really happening on the ground. We've sustained our sanctions at the level that they've always been in Iran. All of this unwinding of sanctions from this administration in the U.S. is primarily to get a deal.

1:50 p.m.

Executive Director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Mark Dubowitz

Well, the U.S. administration will claim that they have yet to unwind the sanctions, that they've provided only limited direct sanctions relief in a few key areas. I think those key areas with respect to oil shipments, petrochemicals, auto parts and the release of about $4 billion in trapped oil revenues has provided a not insignificant boost to the Iranian economy. What has fundamentally changed the Iranian economy's trajectory—from 2012 when it was in a deep recession and heading downwards to 2014 looking forward where the economy has stabilized and is now experiencing a modest, albeit fragile, recovery—is that the decision was made by the administration in mid-2013 not to intensify the pressure, not to double down on sanctions but, indeed, to stop the escalation of sanctions.

The net result is that oxygen has been introduced into the Iranian economy. Rouhani and his economics team have more space to operate now, and sentiment has changed. The sentiment has gone from despair to hope inside Iran. Outside Iran it's gone from fear of sanctions to greed as companies try to be the first in line to come rushing in. The net result of this is that we, the west, have diminished our negotiating leverage vis-à-vis Iran, and the net result of that is that we have retreated from our red lines with respect to Iran's military nuclear infrastructure as the Iranians increasingly have said, “No, no, no, not negotiable”.

1:55 p.m.

Conservative

David Sweet Conservative Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale, ON

[Inaudible—Editor]...substantial oxygen actually, enough to rebound the entire economy, and that's troubling because it adds credibility back to this regime in the hearts and minds of regular Iranian people. That's a big concern.

You had talked about the Revolutionary Guard and sanctions in that regard. Are there members of the Revolutionary Guard who serve without option?

1:55 p.m.

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Ali Alfoneh

Right now the Revolutionary Guards are engaged in a fierce battle with the Iranian government. Mr. Rouhani wants to subject the Revolutionary Guards to political control. One of the things he has been doing systematically is to cancel contracts that the previous administration, Mr. Ahmadinejad's presidency, signed with the Revolutionary Guard-owned companies. That of course makes the Revolutionary Guards fear improvement of relations between the United States and the Rouhani government even more.

As I see it right now, they have no stakes in any kind of negotiated deal, but I think that they are also biding their time. They know that Mr. Khamenei sooner or later is going to depend on them again and will need their support. Let's say in a couple of years from now when the immediate crisis has passed and Iran's economy has stabilized, that foreign companies begin returning to Iran, then Mr. Khamenei could actually go back, when it comes to the nuclear negotiations and say that this and this and this part of the negotiation he does not recognize, and actually support the demands of the Revolutionary Guards. Put simply, his domestic survival also depends on the repressive muscle and arm of the Revolutionary Guards.

1:55 p.m.

Conservative

David Sweet Conservative Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale, ON

Could you just speak about the conscription of the Revolutionary Guards?

1:55 p.m.

Executive Director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Mark Dubowitz

Yes, I think that's what you were getting at. You were getting at whether Iranians are actually forced to join the Revolutionary Guards or whether it is—

1:55 p.m.

Conservative

David Sweet Conservative Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale, ON

Are there some that are?

1:55 p.m.

Executive Director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Mark Dubowitz

Yes, I'll let Ali talk to this because he's a Revolutionary Guards expert.

1:55 p.m.

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Ali Alfoneh

The conscription issue is that all Iranian males over 18 years of age have to show up for conscription. The military service is slightly more than one year long. The Revolutionary Guards have the first pick when it comes to selection of individuals who show up for the draft. Those people do not have a real choice if the Revolutionary Guards recruitment officer wants them to serve there. But there are also many who actively try to serve their military service in the draft with the Revolutionary Guards because they have better benefits and higher pay.

1:55 p.m.

Executive Director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Mark Dubowitz

I would add to that, clearly entering the Revolutionary Guards is your ticket to upward mobility, particularly given the Revolutionary Guards' increasing control of the Iranian economy. Based on our assessment of the Iranian economy, at least half to two-thirds of the entire Iranian economy is controlled by the Revolutionary Guards. You get conscripted to military service, but then it is absolutely within your interest, your career interest, perhaps your financial interest, to volunteer your service for the Revolutionary Guards.

I think this conscription issue has been overstated as a reason not to actually designate the entire Revolutionary Guards. Ultimately, the Revolutionary Guards are a system of vast domestic repression. They control Iran's overseas terrorist activities, and they are the custodian of Iran's nuclear weapons program.

1:55 p.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative Scott Reid

You're out of time, Mr. Sweet. You're actually about a minute and a half overtime.

Mr. Benskin, please.

May 13th, 2014 / 1:55 p.m.

NDP

Tyrone Benskin NDP Jeanne-Le Ber, QC

Getting back to human rights, the nuclear negotiations and so forth should be better linked, but for me the issue is human rights in Iran.

Mr. Alfoneh, you mentioned, for example, that the Jewish population in Iran is not one of the target populations. You stressed that that was not thanks to any government efforts; it was the people of Iran. Would it be safe to extrapolate from that and say that the persecution of other religious minorities is not something that is supported, by and large, by the population of Iran, but is something that is generated from the top down?

2 p.m.

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Ali Alfoneh

My answer, sir, would be that the government has an easier time persecuting the Baha'i community because many devout Shia Iranians have bought into the clerical argument that the Baha'i faith constitutes an ideological threat to the survival of Shia Islam. The Baha'i faith, in their viewpoint, more or less negates the entire theology of Shia Islam. If you are a devout Shia Iranian, and if you are exposed to this type of propaganda every single day, there is some of it that works on you, and therefore the government of the Islamic republic has a slightly easier time persecuting the Baha'i community.

The reaction to persecution of the Jewish community would have been much harsher because the Jewish community in Iran.... Most Iranians consider Iranian Jews first and foremost as Iranians and then as Jews. This, I believe, can be documented by the fact that Iran has the largest Jewish community in the Middle East after Israel.

2 p.m.

NDP

Tyrone Benskin NDP Jeanne-Le Ber, QC

Thank you.

We've been talking about sanctions. Sanctions, as necessary as they may be, so many times on the political level inevitably affect Joe and Sally on the ground. Ultimately, any change in regime is going to have to come from the ground up.

What kind of incentives, what kind of actions, can the west take to help support and strengthen the people on the ground, Sally and Joe, in order to educate them more to make those changes from within?

2 p.m.

Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Ali Alfoneh

First and foremost, I would very much like to use this opportunity to thank the Prime Minister of Canada and in general the political elites of this country for extending moral support to the Iranian population, moral support that the Iranian public did not receive from President Obama back in 2009. Back in 2009, according to the mayor of Tehran, three million people went into the street chanting, “Death to the dictator”. At that time President Obama was too busy doing back-channel diplomacy with Islamic republics, rather than making statements in support of the democratic movement. Moral support is important. Do not underestimate the importance of leaders of democratic countries like Canada offering public supports in favour of Iranian democratic movements.

Apart from this, one of the issues for any democratic opposition is to mature. The way you mature in democracy is through open, public debate. You need a forum. One of those fora is the public media, media that is not censored by the regime. Even, let's say, respectable public broadcasting organizations like the BBC in reality are very, very careful not to antagonize the regime in Tehran, which, of course, creates a problem for members of the opposition who actually would like to have an open debate and question some of the atrocities committed by the regime in Tehran.

Communication and moral support are, I believe, some of the first steps that can be taken, but of course they are not the only ones.

2 p.m.

Executive Director, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

Mark Dubowitz

I would just add to that, sir. I grew up in South Africa, actually in South Africa under apartheid, and the argument was made that sanctions against South Africa would be disproportionately felt by black South Africans in the townships of Soweto, while white South Africans comfortably ensconced in the northern suburbs of Johannesburg would not feel the impact. Despite this, almost every anti-apartheid leader, including Nelson Mandela himself, has publicly supported sanctions as a tool that helps change the calculus of South Africa's Afrikaner government.

There is no denying that sanctions will disproportionately hurt the average person and will redound, at least in the short term, to the advantage of the Revolutionary Guards and those who are connected to the regime. But ultimately sanctions—economic sanctions, political sanctions, human rights sanctions, terrorism sanctions—undercut the economic power and the political legitimacy of bad regimes. They don't have a perfect track record. They don't work in isolation. They're not a silver bullet. President Rouhani is at the table negotiating with the P5+1 because he was elected by the Iranian people as a result of sanctions inflicting serious economic costs on this regime. Whether that leads to a comprehensive nuclear deal that stops Iran's nuclear bomb, one will wait to see. But sanctions have been a vital instrument of coercive statecraft.

2:05 p.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative Scott Reid

Unfortunately, that concludes the amount of time we have for you, Mr. Benskin. I allowed that to go over as well.

Thank you to our witnesses. You've provided additional feedback for us. As you know, we've been following this issue in the subcommittee for several years now, and getting this kind of update indeed is very helpful to us. We're very grateful that you were able to make the time to be here today.

Thank you.

We are adjourned.