Evidence of meeting #115 for Finance in the 41st Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was economy.

A video is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Mark Carney  Governor, Bank of Canada
Tiff Macklem  Senior Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada

10 a.m.

Governor, Bank of Canada

Mark Carney

Conceptually, by looking only at the benefits, there's a revenue benefit, obviously, and there is the potential, by changing the price of that product, that this product, which formerly wasn't manufactured here, would be manufactured here. Obviously, there is a wide range of costs, though, that would be associated with the policy.

10 a.m.

NDP

Peggy Nash NDP Parkdale—High Park, ON

If I hear you correctly, it might just be a revenue generator for the government.

10 a.m.

Governor, Bank of Canada

Mark Carney

Well, I'm just speaking conceptually.

10 a.m.

NDP

Peggy Nash NDP Parkdale—High Park, ON

Thank you.

10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Thank you.

Governor, I'll take the next round as the chair.

I want to give you the opportunity to comment on the rate at which banks lend to each other. On the Canadian dealer offered rate and the London interbank offered rate, the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada in January did a review. There have been some concerns raised at the international level with respect to some of the accountability in play and some of the aspects that have been happening by what they call LIBOR and CDOR. There have been questions raised with respect to whether they should be responsible to one outside regulatory body, rather than having a sort of private sector overseer.

Obviously, with your Canadian and international experience, I wanted to allow you an opportunity to comment on that.

10 a.m.

Governor, Bank of Canada

Mark Carney

This is an important issue. It goes to several aspects of the financial system. First and foremost, and I'll speak generally about internationally, it goes to market integrity. We have seen what can only be described as some shocking criminal behaviour—we'll leave it to the courts to make those final determinations, and it's certainly behaviour that should be prosecuted to the full weight of not just securities regulators but also judicial authorities, as appropriate—in the manipulation of one of the most important financial benchmarks, or series of financial benchmarks, that are important to the functioning of the global financial system. That's the question of market integrity, and the oversight of that conduct is the responsibility of market regulators.

What has happened with financial benchmarks, and it's different in different jurisdictions, is that this, in many respects, has not been a regulated activity or an activity that has been overseen directly. What is changing is that the International Organization of Securities Commissions just came out with a series of recommendations last week for changing the governance and oversight of best practices for governance and oversight of these benchmarks. That's the first point.

The second point is that there are some questions—and the chairman of the CFTC raised questions yesterday even on this issue—about the ability of the so-called judgment-based benchmarks to continue to provide reliable indications of the underlying level of costs in transactions between banks.

The FSB, at the request of the G-20, will look into this issue in three respects: first, to ensure that those governance and oversight principles are put in place and they're followed by the member jurisdictions, which would include Canada, for CDOR; secondly, to consider what potential transaction-based benchmarks—so benchmarks that are based in real transactions as opposed to episodic transactions, and judgment around that—could eventually replace some of these, and I don't want to presume the outcome of that analysis; and thirdly, the transition mechanisms and potential transition costs associated with that.

I'll just make two final points.

LIBOR itself is a reference benchmark. It's an important benchmark. It's the costs of banks lending to each other. If you borrow as a corporation, often the cost of your funds is priced off LIBOR. Sometimes, in some countries, mortgages are priced off LIBOR. But LIBOR itself, on top of all that, is the reference benchmark in over $300 trillion derivatives, so it's important that we get it right, and it's important that this is a seamless transition. That's the intent.

The last thing I'll say is that the official sector clearly has a role. We have a role to oversee and ensure integrity in these systems, but we also have a role to coordinate the private sector, and to allow the private sector to identify the next benchmarks and ensure an effective transition.

10:05 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

I just have a short time left. Can you explain to Canadians—I understand it—why it matters to them very directly? Secondly, in your view, who or what should have oversight?

10:05 a.m.

Governor, Bank of Canada

Mark Carney

I missed the first part of the question. I'm sorry, Chair.

10:05 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Why does the rate at which banks lend to each other matter to Canadians? Many people contact me and say they wonder why their rates don't fluctuate in accordance with the overnight rate that you set. But in fact the interbank lending rate has a much more direct impact.

Secondly, the most important question is, who or what, in your view, should have oversight, both domestically and at the international level?

10:05 a.m.

Governor, Bank of Canada

Mark Carney

I think the answer to the second is for determination, but this is a market conduct question. Market conduct is best addressed by securities commissions; it's a market integrity issue.

My personal view is that ultimately we should come to an arrangement in Canada whereby this is overseen not by a self-regulatory organization, as it is at present by IIROC, but by one of the securities commissions. Obviously, that falls into all the joys of securities commissions and authorities and responsibilities that we have here in Canada.

10:05 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

It falls, that is, into the question of whether we should have a common regulator.

I'll have to return to that, unfortunately. My time is up.

I'll go to Mr. Brison now, for your round, please.

10:05 a.m.

Liberal

Scott Brison Liberal Kings—Hants, NS

Thank you, Mr. Chair.

Governor, you've spoken of the financially vulnerable and those who are paying more than 40% of their income in debt servicing. Has the bank done some analysis as to how many Canadians fall into that category, how large the scale of that issue is, and secondly of the profile of these families? Are they middle class families who've had some disruption to their work, who may have lost full-time work and have gone into part-time work because of the decline in manufacturing? Or are they low-income families who have been strapped from the beginning?

What is the analysis the bank has done in this area?

10:05 a.m.

Governor, Bank of Canada

Mark Carney

We have done some analysis. We have surveyed some databases that are representative of the Canadian economy. Obviously interest rates are incredibly low at present, both the Bank of Canada rate and the rates at which banks are lending to Canadians, and mortgage rates as well. The consequence is that you have to have a lot of debt relative to your income to be financially vulnerable.

The most recent analysis we did of this, which was probably six months ago for the December financial sector review, shows that at present around 8% of borrowers are in this category. We did some sensitivity analysis, some stress tests, around it, and the thing we've tried to show is what happens if interest rates start to move towards a more historic level—not very high levels, but more historic levels—and what happens if there's a shock, as we discussed earlier, that increases unemployment. Then we get up into numbers, such as that one in ten Canadians could be in that situation. Rates go up, and because of floating rate debt and repricing of debt—or unemployment as well, and at the same time, because often the two go together—and because the proportion of debt stock that's held by vulnerable households is slightly higher, we start to see that unhelpful dynamic.

We will share that analysis.

10:10 a.m.

Senior Deputy Governor, Bank of Canada

Tiff Macklem

The key point to keep in mind and to underline is that because interest rates are so low and delinquencies are relatively low, people are not having a huge problem servicing their debt. But with a bigger level of debt, when rates go up, the potential for that problem to rise more rapidly than it has historically is certainly there. That's a vulnerability, and that's what we've been trying to remind Canadians of.

10:10 a.m.

Liberal

Scott Brison Liberal Kings—Hants, NS

Would you agree that even fixed rate financing still carries with it significant risk? Five years is a fairly short period of time, and if Canadians are not able to reduce the size of their debts over that period of time, they will still be faced with the same challenge. Five years is just kicking it down the road.

10:10 a.m.

Governor, Bank of Canada

Mark Carney

Without question, that's so. The only caveat, as you know, is that over that period there is some amortization of the underlying debt stock. But initially, with a mortgage, there's not much.

10:10 a.m.

Liberal

Scott Brison Liberal Kings—Hants, NS

In five years you could be back in Canada.

I was thinking of Alice in Wonderland earlier, and it's curiouser and curiouser. The Conservatives were defending higher tariffs and protectionism, and the NDP were arguing for lower tariffs and free trade, and there was the fascinating discussion you had with Ms. Glover about China and the comparison with the U.S. Do we not have a special tariff agreement with the U.S.? Isn't it called NAFTA?

10:10 a.m.

Governor, Bank of Canada

Mark Carney

Yes, but I will leave it to you—

10:10 a.m.

Liberal

Scott Brison Liberal Kings—Hants, NS

That's what I thought. I just wanted to clarify for listeners.

10:10 a.m.

Governor, Bank of Canada

Mark Carney

—to clarify the preciseness.

10:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Thirty seconds.

10:10 a.m.

Liberal

Scott Brison Liberal Kings—Hants, NS

Governor, thank you for your service to Canada. Do you have any advice to your successor based on what you learned?

10:10 a.m.

Governor, Bank of Canada

Mark Carney

No. I was asked this question the other day, and I'm highly confident that my successor will be fully capable of discharging the responsibilities of the office and won't need my advice.

10:10 a.m.

Conservative

The Chair Conservative James Rajotte

Thank you, Mr. Brison.

One piece of advice: don't answer loaded questions at the finance committee.

10:10 a.m.

Voices

Oh, oh!