Evidence of meeting #30 for Finance in the 41st Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was data.
A video is available from Parliament.
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Conservative
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NDP
Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC
—I'm allowing a certain discretion for you and there's no insult intended to Mr. Van Kesteren either. It's just that when we have—
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An hon. member
You're a vice-chair now.
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NDP
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Conservative
The Chair Conservative James Rajotte
Order, order.
My reaction is that Mr. Van Kesteren was asking questions respectfully. I don't know if the witness felt disrespect, but I thought he asked questions very respectfully, and using words like “ideological” and such are more points of debate rather than points of order.
I have a couple of minutes, and I simply wanted to follow up on a point. In an assessment of Canada's labour market performance, the 2012 report from the PBO says:
In particular, labour market conditions were tighter in the Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba) than in the rest of Canada.
But in the labour market assessment 2014, it says:
...provincial data suggests that, with the exception of Saskatchewan, there are no other provinces experiencing more acute province-wide labour shortages or skills mismatches relative to before the 2008-09 recession.
Why the change in assessment?
6:35 p.m.
Randall Bartlett Economic Advisor, Analyst, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Library of Parliament
We used a broader number of data sources when we did the analysis for the labour market assessment 2014 relative to 2012. What we used in 2012 was just StatsCan. Going beyond that, to use CFIB data as well as data from the Conference Board of Canada, based on Wanted Analytics information, what we found was that there was very clearly a labour shortage in Saskatchewan, but we found that data from the CFIB and from the Conference Board didn't support a labour shortage in Alberta or Manitoba at that time.
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Conservative
The Chair Conservative James Rajotte
The 2014 report says:
...no other provinces experiencing more acute province-wide labour shortages or skills mismatches relative to before the 2008-09 recession.
Was there a labour shortage or skills mismatch prior to the 2008-09 recession in Alberta?
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Economic Advisor, Analyst, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Library of Parliament
What we looked at was the relative relationship between the job vacancy rate and the unemployment rate currently and prior to the recession and how that evolved. We weren't able to find that it was more acute, per se. But that threshold, there's no—
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Conservative
The Chair Conservative James Rajotte
That's not my question. My question is, was there a labour shortage or skills mismatch before the 2008-09 recession?
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Economic Advisor, Analyst, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Library of Parliament
Oh, I'm sure there were definitely labour shortages in Saskatchewan, no question. In Alberta, I'm sure there were definitely pockets of labour shortages and skill mismatches, as there are across the country. How much larger it is now relative to before, we don't know.
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Conservative
The Chair Conservative James Rajotte
So there are skills mismatches and labour shortages in certain regions, like the prairie provinces currently, as there was before the 2008-09 recession.
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Economic Advisor, Analyst, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Library of Parliament
We don't have sufficient data, as they have in the U.S., to actually look at the steady state relationship between those two to determine whether or not we could say there is a threshold for a labour shortage or skills mismatch in those provinces. All we can say is that the vacancy rates are lower and the unemployment rates are lower, so it's not as acute as it was previously.
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Conservative
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Economic Advisor, Analyst, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Library of Parliament
That was the conclusion we reached in the paper.
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Conservative
The Chair Conservative James Rajotte
But the labour shortage and skills mismatch in Alberta in 2007 was as chronic as it ever was in Alberta's history.
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Economic Advisor, Analyst, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Library of Parliament
We can't do a steady state analysis; we just don't have the data.
6:40 p.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative James Rajotte
I appreciate both of the reports, but this is part of my problem when you say it's not as bad as it was in the worst part of Alberta's history. Your criticism of the labour report attached to the 2014 budget is that they're not using a longer time frame. With respect, I think you have to use a longer time frame than simply going back to the worst labour shortage in the province's history.
6:40 p.m.
Economic Advisor, Analyst, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Library of Parliament
That data is not available in Canada. We would like to very much, but the data is not available in Canada. CFIB data goes back to 2004, Wanted Technologies to 2005, and StatsCan to 2011. That's as far as it goes. There's no information on—
6:40 p.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative James Rajotte
Anecdotally, you can come to my riding and drive around and see the “help wanted” signs. I guess we could always use that as an analysis.
Anyway, I appreciate this very much. I wish we could continue this discussion. I thank you so much for all the reports you've produced and sent to the committee and all of your good work. Thank you for appearing here today.
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Economic Advisor, Analyst, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Library of Parliament
Thank you. Merci.
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Conservative
