Foreign Affairs Committee on May 12th, 2022

Evidence of meeting #20 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was chinese.

A video is available from Parliament.

On the agenda

Situation in the Taiwan Strait

MPs speaking

Also speaking

Kerry Brown Professor of Chinese Studies, King's College London, and Director, Lau China Institute, As an Individual

Steve Tsang Professor, SOAS University of London, As an Individual

Kelly McCauley Edmonton West, CPC

André Laliberté Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual

Joseph Wong Roz and Ralph Halbert Professor of Innovation, Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, Professor of Political Science, University of Toronto, As an Individual

Tracy Gray Kelowna—Lake Country, CPC

Jenna Sudds Kanata—Carleton, Lib.

6 p.m.

Liberal

Rachel Bendayan Liberal Outremont, QC

Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.

Professor Laliberté, first, I want to thank you for being with us today. I listened to your testimony with great interest. Like the other members of this committee, I'm grateful to you for bringing to our attention the proper terms that we should be using.

In a similar vein, I'd like to address how China alludes to the constitutional principle of “one country, two systems” to allay Taiwan's fears that its democratic system and traditions cannot survive under Chinese control.

We all know what's happening in Hong Kong right now. We have seen the Chinese crack down on the democratic process and freedom of expression, among other things.

In your opinion, what impact will the events in Hong Kong have on the situation between China and Taiwan?

6:05 p.m.

Full Professor, School of Political Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences and Research Chair in Taiwan Studies, University of Ottawa, As an Individual

André Laliberté

Thank you very much for the question.

For one thing, it's not a constitutional principle. The phrase “one country, two systems” is a political statement. It's a political statement that Xi Jinping has simply decided to reject. He's given up on this principle because that's no longer his goal. The real goal is now the annexation of Taiwan.

On the other hand, if Taiwan is annexed, it won't be to let Taiwan be an autonomous region with a different regime, a democratic regime. In fact, it will be to make Taiwan another Chinese province.

Like my colleague Joseph Wong, I am very pessimistic about this.

If we were in another reality, that is, if Xi Jinping were to resign, if he were not to return as leader of the Communist Party, people would wonder whether that would result in a reform process in the party. That would be the ideal scenario, but there's little chance of that happening.

6:05 p.m.

Liberal

Rachel Bendayan Liberal Outremont, QC

Thank you very much, Professor Laliberté.

My next question is addressed to Mr. Wong.

We heard earlier testimony from another esteemed professor. When looking at the timeline of a possible invasion into Taiwan, he was predicting it about 10 years out. I, like my colleagues around the table, have been reading with much concern and dismay about the regular military drills that are ongoing, even just this past weekend in the southern part of the island. I wonder if you agree on that 10-year timeline, or if you think it might be sooner.

6:05 p.m.

Roz and Ralph Halbert Professor of Innovation, Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, Professor of Political Science, University of Toronto, As an Individual

Dr. Joseph Wong

I couldn't speculate. I think it's shorter than what we had originally thought. There was a prevailing conventionalism not too long ago that time was on Taiwan's side. That is, if Taiwan could maintain its democratic course and China continued to economically modernize, this would be a positive scenario for both sides of the challenge.

Increasingly, it seems that time is not on Taiwan's side, so I can't speculate on the number of years. I think all of the analysts are considering the various types of scenarios and invasion scenarios people have talked about, the challenge of a coastal invasion in Taiwan and so forth, but it's beyond my expertise to be able to give a date except to say that, politically, it seems to me that the window is much shorter than it was before.

6:05 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Sven Spengemann

Thank you very much, Professor Wong.

Thank you, Ms. Bendayan. Your time is up.

Hon. colleagues, allow me to thank the expert witnesses for appearing before the committee this afternoon.

Professor Laliberté and Professor Wong, we thank you for your testimony and for sharing your expertise.

Thank you so much for being with us. It's greatly appreciated. We will allow you to disconnect.

Colleagues, I have a raised hand. There's a point of order.

Briefly, Ms. Sudds, please go ahead.

6:05 p.m.

Kanata—Carleton, Lib.

Jenna Sudds

Thank you.

I have a brief point of order to correct the record. In my excitement during my line of questioning, I referred to two countries when I should really have been referring to two societies, if we could correct the record.... Thank you.

6:05 p.m.

Liberal

The Chair Liberal Sven Spengemann

Thank you very much for that clarification, Madam Sudds.

Colleagues, thank you very much for your work. With that, we stand adjourned until our next meeting.