Evidence of meeting #65 for Government Operations and Estimates in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was budget.
A video is available from Parliament.
4:05 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
I haven't calculated that.
It would probably be a bit more expensive, given the demographic composition of the Canadian population. The 10% top-up for those 75 and older is estimated to cost $2.6 billion in the current year, so it would probably be at least that.
May 8th, 2023 / 4:05 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Off the top of my head, I don't have that answer.
4:05 p.m.
NDP
Gord Johns NDP Courtenay—Alberni, BC
Okay, you haven't looked at that.
I think you've done some reports already on tax havens and leakages to the Canadian economy.
4:05 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Yes, we have done a couple of reports on tax enforcement and the tax gaps. There are quite a few reports on our website on all of these issues.
4:05 p.m.
NDP
Gord Johns NDP Courtenay—Alberni, BC
My understanding is that a corporate tax increase of even 1% would cover the gap between 65 and 75. My big concern around that would be that the government is choosing corporate tax breaks versus helping people, seniors, with the cost of living.
We had Michael Wernick here, and he testified about the importance of spending money on training, and about the cuts under the Conservative government around training and leadership training as well.
Do you agree that investing in public service training would certainly help reduce the number of highly paid consultants?
4:05 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It probably could reduce the amount of consulting that is necessary, but I think that hiring the right types of public servants would probably also contribute to reducing the need for consultants.
It's not just a matter of training. I think it's that, but also a matter of recruiting the right skill sets.
4:05 p.m.
NDP
Gord Johns NDP Courtenay—Alberni, BC
We've seen government departments constantly lapse spending. We saw Veterans Affairs under the Harper government leave $1.1 billion of unspent money. We had a motion in the House to stop lapsed spending on Veterans Affairs back in 2018. It was my motion in the House, and it was unanimously supported, but we're still seeing that.
Can you speak about some of the worst departments in terms of lapsed spending and maybe why they're unable to spend the funds that have been allocated and promised?
4:05 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
Lapsed spending occurs when a department does not spend all of its allocated spending, the spending that Parliament has authorized it to spend. It can occur for a variety of reasons. It can be due to delayed proposals or a delay in acquisition.
Off the top of my head, usually the departments that have the biggest lapses are also those with the biggest budgets. The Department of National Defence usually comes at the top of the list, because it has major procurement projects that can be delayed for a variety of reasons.
I don't remember off the top of my head who is number two, but usually the bigger the department, the more likely they are to be in the top five departments that lapse.
4:05 p.m.
NDP
Gord Johns NDP Courtenay—Alberni, BC
Were there any surprises? Were there any that popped out when you were looking at them that had substantial lapsed spending and were failing to deliver on their promises?
4:05 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
We don't have lapses for the year that ended March 31. We'll have the lapses only in the fall, when we get closer to the public accounts. The only data we have is about the lapses for the year that ended in March 2022, over a year ago.
4:05 p.m.
NDP
Gord Johns NDP Courtenay—Alberni, BC
Back to the seniors and the OAS, do you see the increase for low-income seniors as sufficient to manage inflation and the cost of living?
4:05 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That's a very delicate answer. It's highly subjective. It's a policy decision, which I can't really address.
4:05 p.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Kelly McCauley
Thanks, Mr. Johns.
Before we start the next round, I'm told that there will not be a vote that will disturb our committee. It may be later, but we'll be done by then.
Mr. Barrett, you have five minutes, please.
4:05 p.m.
Conservative
Michael Barrett Conservative Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, ON
Thanks, Chair.
Thanks to the witnesses for appearing here today.
At the beginning of April, it was reported that over the last seven years, the Liberal government increased the cost to run government by $151 billion per year, adjusted for inflation.
What will the impact be of this increase on the inflationary pressures faced by Canadians?
4:05 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
The Bank of Canada indicated in its monetary policy report a couple of weeks ago that government spending—not just the federal government but also provincial government spending in general and given the fiscal policy stance—contributes to inflation.
The spending that you mentioned is part of government spending, so obviously the cost of government operations also contributes to sustaining inflation. It contributes to a small extent, because it's not major spending—although we can debate what “major” is in the context of monetary policy and fiscal policy—but it does contribute to sustaining inflation.
4:10 p.m.
Conservative
Michael Barrett Conservative Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, ON
In the last three years alone, the tax burden imposed on Canadians by the federal government has increased by approximately $3,000 per person per year, which is about 5% of the average person's annual income. That's on top of inflation.
Would you say that Canadians are getting good value, or their money's worth, from the government?
4:10 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
That's a debatable question. Some would say that people are getting tremendous value for their money; others would say not. It depends on the individual profile.
What I can speak to are performance targets that departments themselves choose and report on. We find that, generally speaking, about half of government performance targets are met, with the others either having no deadline to meet the targets or not being entirely met.
I think that's probably as good an answer as I can give to your question.
4:10 p.m.
Conservative
Michael Barrett Conservative Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, ON
The government has proposed a confiscation for compensation. They call it a gun buyback.
I'm wondering if you can speak to the expected costs of that program.
4:10 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It's something that we considered a year ago, I think, back when we knew some parameters. It was before all the recent changes were announced. At the time, we estimated that the cost of the gun buyback would be several hundred million dollars. You'll have to forgive me for not remembering the exact amount. We estimated, I think, $800 million for the gun buyback program, but I may be wrong.
I'll have to provide you with a more accurate response in writing.
4:10 p.m.
Conservative
Michael Barrett Conservative Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, ON
Would you be able to update the analysis that you completed before and provide it to the committee?
4:10 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer
It's probably something we could do if the committee wishes us to do so.
4:10 p.m.
Conservative
Michael Barrett Conservative Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes, ON
Okay. I'm not sure if we need concurrence for that to happen, Chair.
4:10 p.m.
Conservative