Evidence of meeting #62 for National Defence in the 42nd Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was ukraine.
A recording is available from Parliament.
4:10 p.m.
Conservative
Randy Hoback Conservative Prince Albert, SK
Everyone talked about the importance of getting people trained up so they could fill the vacancies in regard to cybersecurity. Is that something we need to be looking at more closely in Canada?
Again, it still has a Ukrainian context. If they are the test ground, the location where everything is being tried and experimented on, shouldn't we be there to learn as much as we can?
4:10 p.m.
As an Individual
I fully agree with you, sir. We should be there, and we should be spending a lot of time and effort helping them out, and also learning and implementing those solutions here in Canada and with our NATO partners.
4:10 p.m.
Conservative
Randy Hoback Conservative Prince Albert, SK
As far as defensive weapons are concerned, the types of weapons you mentioned, you think we should actually be more aggressive in regard to the types of weapons we allow them to purchase from Canada. Can you give some examples of what they would be used for, and what types of weapons they are?
4:10 p.m.
As an Individual
I don't want to repeat myself. In my opening statement, I was talking about the counter-battery radars and Javelin missiles. There are a number of items that the Ukrainian government has asked for. The list is very long. It has been officially submitted, from what I understand, from the Ukrainian government to the Canadian government, so I'm sure you can request that.
The problem is not that Ukraine doesn't have enough weapons and ammunition—it sure does—but that it doesn't have access to the newest technologies. Russians, or the Russian proxy forces, are certainly receiving a lot of new equipment and new weapons from the Russian Federation, and they are using these. Ukraine is at a disadvantage even as it wages this standstill war right now.
If, God forbid, it came to the point where there is a full-blown Russian aggression and offensive on Ukraine, Ukraine would be hard pressed to stop the advance of the Russian offensive forces right now at the border and the Donbass. Although right now there is a so-called frozen conflict, nobody knows what is in the head of Mr. Putin, so one has to prepare for the worst. If they had advanced weapons, such as Javelin missiles, the Russians would definitely think twice before advancing, because of the casualties they could incur on their side as well.
In this particular case, when dealing with Mr. Putin and his team in the Kremlin, strength deters aggression, while weakness provokes it. When dealing with Mr. Putin and the Russian aggression, we certainly should be strong.
4:10 p.m.
Conservative
Randy Hoback Conservative Prince Albert, SK
You've been on the ground in Ukraine. We've heard Mr. Schroeder talk about light arms, light artillery, and different types of weapons coming in. Of course, you can't nail it down. There is no smoking gun on where they are coming from. Do you have any speculation on where they are coming from? Do you have any comments you'd like to make in regard to that?
4:10 p.m.
As an Individual
Well, sir, I have no doubt that the majority of them are actually coming from Russia. It's very simple math. The war has been going on for four years. The so-called LNR and DNR are self-proclaimed, unrecognized Russian proxy republics. They have factories producing this ammunition and weapons. Clearly, the Ukrainian government is not providing them to their enemies.
When I was travelling across the front lines, many times I could see clearly.... As an ex-military officer, I can tell you that they are not saving their ammunition. They are firing day in and day out on various civilian objects. I think they have no shortage of weapons. They have to receive them from somewhere.
4:10 p.m.
NDP
Randall Garrison NDP Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC
Thanks very much, Mr. Chair.
Thank you to our witnesses for being here today.
I think the committee knows I'm very interested in ways to strengthen Canada-Ukraine relations, but I want to focus my questions on Mr. Schroeder today, because we've had relatively limited testimony about weapons flows in Ukraine.
You've described a situation, if I understand it correctly, where there is very little capacity of the government to manage the trade of small weapons and light weapons, and that includes everything up to, as I think you said, grenade launchers and multiple rocket systems. Could you comment a little more on the capacity of the Ukrainian government to monitor what's going on with those systems in Ukraine?
4:10 p.m.
Senior Researcher, Small Arms Survey, As an Individual
Sure. I would just preface my comment by saying that it is a Herculean task for any government to monitor small arms and light weapons in its territory, especially when some of the territory is not controlled by its forces.
The Ukrainian government has been very aggressive in countering illicit weapons. Seizures occur on a daily basis. There is enough public information that you can see how they are doing it. They are doing it professionally. They are documenting it. They're taking down serial numbers and the information necessary for intelligence. They are destroying in situ some of the more dangerous weapons. It's obvious that they are taking this problem very seriously.
Whether they have the necessary resources to really get on top of that problem, that is a question for the Ukrainian government. That's something the Government of Canada might want to explore with them.
4:10 p.m.
NDP
Randall Garrison NDP Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC
In a report from one of your colleagues in April of this year, you said very clearly that the Ukrainian government doesn't require licences for the transfer of small weapons and light weapons within the country. In other words, the trade in weapons is not officially regulated. Is that correct?
4:15 p.m.
Senior Researcher, Small Arms Survey, As an Individual
That's not my report, but my interpretation of that report is that there is some ambiguity in the law regarding licensing, but that would only apply to certain types of firearms, when we're talking about rocket-propelled grenades, when we're talking about hand grenades. All of that is prohibited from civilian use, from what I understand. I think the ambiguity refers only to certain types of firearms. That's just a small subgroup of the larger universe of small arms and light weapons that we see circulating illicitly in Ukraine.
4:15 p.m.
NDP
Randall Garrison NDP Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC
Once again, is it more a question of capacity than it is a gap in the law?
4:15 p.m.
Senior Researcher, Small Arms Survey, As an Individual
Yes, again, I didn't do this research, but my understanding is that there is some ambiguity that has legal implications, but when you look at the weapons that are of greatest concern, at least from my viewpoint, it has less to do with legal procedures and more to do with law enforcement capacity and border monitoring and, eventually, when this conflict is resolved, disposing properly of the surplus small arms, light weapons, and munitions that are available in large quantities in Ukraine.
4:15 p.m.
NDP
Randall Garrison NDP Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC
You mentioned earlier incidents of the export or re-export of weapons and weapon systems from Ukraine and the attempts to send them to both western Europe and the Middle East. Could you tell us a little about the scope of those transfers and what knowledge we have of who is involved in those kinds of transfers? Who is trying to do those kinds of things?
4:15 p.m.
Senior Researcher, Small Arms Survey, As an Individual
I would just say that data is very sparse. What we have are summaries of seizures, and most of those summaries do not have a lot of detail. Illicit movement within the country appears to be perpetrated by different types of traffickers. There are some reports of online trafficking, including dark web trafficking, but the smuggling outside of the borders is, so far, surprisingly limited, at least as far publicly available information suggests. I would just preface all of these comments by saying that the data is limited.
4:15 p.m.
NDP
Randall Garrison NDP Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC
There have been both allegations, and allegations that the allegations are disinformation, about the export of weapons from Ukraine legally. Is your organization compiling information about legal exports of small arms and light weapon systems from Ukraine?
4:15 p.m.
Senior Researcher, Small Arms Survey, As an Individual
We have some data on exports of small arms and light weapons from Ukraine. The Ukrainians are very good about reporting on those exports, at least those that are authorized. That's available through the UN register of conventional arms and other sources.
4:15 p.m.
NDP
Randall Garrison NDP Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC
Do you know where the arms are principally being shipped from Ukraine?
4:15 p.m.
Senior Researcher, Small Arms Survey, As an Individual
They're listed in the UN registry. There has been a steep decline in exports since the beginning of the war, as in an order of magnitude decrease. The exports are less frequent, which is not surprising. They probably need them for themselves at this point.
4:15 p.m.
NDP
Randall Garrison NDP Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC
Do you have any comments that you would make on the addition of additional lethal weapons to the conflict in Ukraine? If Canada were to decide to authorize the purchase of additional weapons by Ukraine, do you have any comments on the impacts of that on the conflict?
4:15 p.m.
Senior Researcher, Small Arms Survey, As an Individual
I'm not a miliary expert, so I can't comment on the impact. I would just say that exports themselves are not problematic necessarily. The control measures that are put in place on those exports are what is important.
Canada is generally very good about this. It's proper licensing, it's no re-transfers without express permission from the Canadian government, and then it's also post-shipment end use monitoring, which is something that fewer governments have embraced, but it is the most effective way to ensure that weapons are not being diverted.
4:15 p.m.
NDP
Randall Garrison NDP Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC
Do you believe that there is a capacity that exists for post-delivery control like end use monitoring if Canada were exporting weapons to Ukraine? Whose responsibility would that be?
4:15 p.m.
Senior Researcher, Small Arms Survey, As an Individual
I don't know which government agency would be responsible for that. What is realistic depends on the type of weapon. If they are parts for small arms, there's very little that you can do necessarily. If they're Javelin missiles, if you follow the U.S. lead, for example, with Stinger missiles, the shoulder-fired, surface-to-air missile, they do 100% physical inventory by serial number of every single exported missile ever. They do that annually.
4:20 p.m.
NDP
Randall Garrison NDP Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, BC
So the United States government is responsible for going into the country these weapons have been exported to and taking an inventory to see if they're still there. Is that what you're saying?
