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Finance committee Thank you very much. Thank you all.
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee That's it.
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee Certainly. We've known for a long time that automatic stabilizers aren't very sensitive to the economy. In another era, one study estimated that automatic stabilization was almost equivalent to a change of less than 1% in the interest rate. Very recently, we talked about the re
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee Let me just portray two channels for illustration. One I've mentioned before, so I can be quick. That is, John Doe perhaps owns a small business and relies on a credit line for the fluctuations in his business. He has money coming in, but of course, he has money going out, and wh
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee The level of international coordination has been quite high. The G7 and the G20 have been meeting regularly. This morning was the big IMF meeting, which is, of course, most of the world. What you see is a lot of commonality across the fiscal reactions, at least in the types of t
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee That conversation is really just getting started. We talked a bit about that yesterday in the G20 meeting. Basically what is going on is a lot of consultation with the private sector. It almost looks a bit like grand-scale industrial planning, asking “When can you get started and
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee Yes. I think the number you suggest is not an unreasonable one in terms of how much we could end up losing this year, but what will happen is that we're going below capacity, and as I said, we're going to be in a disinflationary zone. It means that the economy will be able to gro
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee You want to explore the worst-case scenario. Let's talk about that. First of all, as I've said a couple of times, the centrepiece of the policy response is fiscal and the most important tools in the fiscal response are what I call “elastic” tools. They will grow automatically if
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee That would be a nice problem to have, to be frank. As a consensus among economists, our biggest concern here is that, net net, this will be a disinflationary occurrence, that the economy will recover slowly enough that there's persistent downward pressure on inflation. That's why
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee Yes. When we get back to normal, interest rates will certainly rise.
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee What I said at the time, and I guess I still feel that way, is that it really is a question for the Minister of Finance, not for the Bank of Canada. If the Government of Canada would like to have some form of borrowing hub for the provinces, that would be a government policy for
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee I agree that it is sobering. That's for sure. I'm less of a fan of the metaphor of life-support. I think of it as stopping the clock. As I said before, we stop the clock in as many respects as possible and just let everybody sit back. Then we're going to restart the clock. Of c
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee I'll start and then turn it over to Ms. Wilkins. Please bear in mind that the purpose of these programs is to help the market function better. It is not to somehow fix the cash needs of a government, whether it's municipal or provincial. The municipal bond market is a relatively
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee That question probably is best saved for two or three months from now, when we actually have some data on how the economy has behaved through this, but we do know the dollar amounts, from the PBO and so on. We have ideas of how much money is actually flowing in. Let's say it is i
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz
Finance committee That's an excellent question. Statistics Canada gave that very preliminary figure for the first quarter. The figure is -2.6%. In comparison, our scenario anticipates that the contraction for the first quarter will be between 1% and 3%. This is exactly along the same lines. It's
April 16th, 2020Committee meeting
Stephen S. Poloz