Thank you very much, sir.
I noticed the unfailing courtesy of everyone insisting that I am Dr. Fuller. Actually, it's Mr. Fuller, but if you insist, I will accept in other senses.
It's an immense pleasure for me to be here to talk to this group on what is a matter very close to my heart. I know it is of immense importance to Canada at this point in the development of its foreign policy.
First of all, I would like to very strongly commend the courage, devotion, and self-sacrifice of Canadian men and women in Afghanistan who are working hard, spending treasure, and, of more importance, giving lives in Afghanistan for this cause to work.
There is no question in my mind that the goals in Afghanistan are extremely worthy: to weaken radicalism; to improve the position of women, human rights, education—again especially for women—and the rule of law; to root out corruption; and to establish democracy and justice. I think these are unexceptional goals that everyone could aspire to. The problem is, in my view, that these goals are not being implemented in Afghanistan in any significant way. In my view, the situation is actually worsening.
I defer to you and to others who perhaps have been there very recently in terms of the most recent statistics and figures you have. I know there are many figures quoted by many different sources in support of their particular position, and I don't want to be here in a game of my statistics trying to outweigh yours. I'm simply presenting what I consider to be my view of the overall situation.
I think the situation is worsening, in that the number of attacks in general is growing across the country each year. More foreign fighters are becoming involved. The IEDs, or improvised explosive devices, which were devices really quite unknown in Afghanistan some years ago, are now being widely used as a result of the experience that fighters have had in Iraq.
It's similar for suicide bombings. For all the years of fighting in Afghanistan against foreigners, suicide bombing was unknown until just a few years ago. In Afghanistan today it's commonplace.
Unfortunately, the area of conflict is spreading outside of the worst of the areas, namely the Pashtun-dominated south, and it is moving into areas that are not known for Pashtun control. Sadly, Kabul is not in control of the country itself. Karzai is—rather cruelly sometimes—referred to as the President of Kabul rather than of Afghanistan.
The issues relating to poppy growth are very serious. Afghanistan probably supplies the bulk of poppies that are consumed by the west in one form or another. When I was chief of station in Afghanistan in the seventies, I can remember being briefed by people who told me they had been fighting poppies starting thirty years before that point. I used to go out with my children and wife in the summertime, counting poppies just in the vicinity of Kabul, to see if there had been any change despite all the efforts of the American and other embassies in the area to try to diminish this problem. So I don't see that there is any major change in that. And worse today is the insistence of some policies to destroy the poppy fields. That is destroying the livelihood of Afghan farmers and turning them in the direction of the Taliban.
In short, I just do not believe that the goals that have been established by Washington, NATO, or the participants in those operations are being achieved, and they are not really going to be achieved in any medium timeframe. Perhaps over a generation one might possibly have some hope of fulfilling some of these goals.
When I speak in such negative terms, I have to point out that I'm not alone in this. Certainly most of my colleagues in the intelligence business, or indeed in the State Department but now no longer involved in this, broadly share these views, as have many external independent assessments of the situation.
Let me just offer a few quick thoughts about the nature of the problem. I know many of you know a lot of the facts, but I'd like to just put them in a framework.
The power of the Taliban overall seems to me to be growing, but what is vital to understand about the Taliban is that this is not essentially an ideological movement. Rather, it's a national or nationalist movement of the Pashtun population, which is the biggest single ethnic group in the country, perhaps making up half of the population. If you were a Pashtun, you'd see the Taliban as the major vehicle for the fulfillment of Pashtun power in Afghanistan. Pashtuns perceive that they have lost that since the fall of the Taliban government and going on to earlier periods. Even if most Pashtuns do not love the Taliban, or even if they do not fully sympathize with many of their extreme interpretations of Islam, they often offer them support in the name of restoration of Pashtun power in the country.
If any of you have read the fascinating history of the area, I don't need to remind you that invaders of the country over hundreds and hundreds of years have never done very well in this country. I do not see any reason why today's forces, which are perceived as occupation forces by many, should expect feelings to be broadly different.
Unfortunately, although I think Hamid Karzai is a very honourable man, a very decent and likeable individual, he has not been terribly competent. Worse, he is perceived as an instrument of the United States and something of an Uncle Tom by most Pashtuns. Even though Karzai himself is Pashtun, he is seen as an effort to placate Pashtun feelings, but not as fully representative of them. New coalitions are therefore rising in the country that are either pro-Taliban, ex-communists, warlords, or others who oppose Karzai's power.
Another quick reality about the country that it is imperative to understand is that if the Pashtuns are the biggest single ethnic group in Afghanistan, there are twice as many Pashtuns in Pakistan. The whole border with Afghanistan is populated by Pashtuns on the other side who are integrally linked linguistically, culturally, tribally, in clan terms, and in other perspectives; so to speak of a border there is highly artificial. It's a porous border. People come and go across it mostly outside of any legal framework. So the Pashtuns in Pakistan will be deeply involved in Pashtun politics in Afghanistan whether we like it or not.
This affects Pakistan's position viscerally. Pakistan is a very insecure country in many respects, living next door to this colossus of India. Therefore, Pakistan cannot afford to have another enemy or threat on its western borders. Therefore, I would argue that any Pakistani government and any security officials or military officials in Pakistan will be determined to maintain control and voice over Pashtun politics in Afghanistan, and indeed would like to have some major degree of control over what Kabul's policies are. I do not think this is going to change. It has nothing to do with Islam or ideology; it has to do with Pakistani geopolitical interests and fears in the region.
Let me jump on now, because my time is very limited and I look forward to an exchange with you all here.
I wish I could say Canada was appreciated in Afghanistan and the region as a totally independent power with a long and distinguished culture of peacekeeping and working within the context of the UN. Sadly, most Afghans see the Canadian participation as essentially part of an American project. I fear that this association with that American project is a very fatal one, because it is a source of anguish and anger to most Muslims, not just in Afghanistan or Pakistan but across most of the Middle East today. Unfortunately, although we might see it as an international umbrella for Canadian participation, NATO also is essentially seen as an instrument of western power.
Today, Muslims across the Middle East perceive the American war against terrorism and its allies as a war against Islam. Whatever the facts are, this is the perception. They perceive Muslims as being killed in the many tens of thousands across the area, especially by U.S. forces. They are fearful and distrustful of American—and indeed even NATO—goals there. I wish that were not the case, and I wish that Canada could be there in its own right and appreciated in its own right as an independent force with a distinguished history.
Let me just suggest a couple of things that I think are vital. I do not wish to argue on Pakistan with many experts within the Canadian government. I understand that your distinguished ambassador to Afghanistan is coming this evening, and I don't wish to cross swords with him in any respect. But I'd like to say that if the likelihood of failure by NATO and others in the next few years is likely, as I wish were not the case, then we need to think about exit strategies. That's Colin Powell's old maxim for American involvement: exit strategies.
I believe there will be no lasting solution until the Pashtuns are brought fully into the system, and that will have to mean forms and elements of the Taliban itself, however distasteful this may be. It is not realistic to think of transforming Afghanistan into a democratic, cohesive, united, peace-loving, clean country in any near term.
Furthermore, apart from involving the Pashtuns heavily, which means Pashtun power, even if the most radical of the Taliban are excluded, there are regional powers that have immense interests in the area, and these are very important for future settlement. These powers are Iran, which has huge influence over western Afghanistan; Pakistan, which I've already talked about; but also Russia, which, as you know, is still licking its wounds from its involvement, with many sad parallels to the NATO participation today. Russia, China, and India—all of these countries have deep, permanent interests in ways that even the United States does not have them. The United States has not lived next door to Afghanistan, and once the fear of al-Qaeda is eliminated, most in the region feel the U.S. will lose interest and that NATO will lose interest.
There must be ways to engage these countries even if Washington does not want to talk to or deal with Iran and does not wish to bring China or Russia more closely into the picture. Indeed, I would have to say that although Americans on the ground are very realistic, the leadership in Washington still perceives Afghanistan as a future base for American power projection across Asia, to block China and to block Russia. Therefore, I feel this goal in itself, even though unspoken, is a reality and creates a reaction from China and Russia, whose assistance, without mentioning Iran, is vital.
Therefore, in conclusion, I would say that I think Canada will have a distinguished future role in the world as a peacekeeping force and as an independent country. However, to be associated with the seriously flawed and dangerously failed policies of the United States government under the present administration is to simply make nearly impossible the Canadian mission there. I wish that were not the case, but having long been associated with American foreign policy, it pains me to say that this is the reality.
So, hopefully, as the world grows more multi-polar now, even against Washington's wishes, I think Canada will find increasing room to work among emerging great powers of the world rather than having a simple, “Are you for America or against America?” I think the world is a bigger place than being pro-American or anti-American. There should be room for countries like Canada to work broadly amongst a great range of powers.
Thank you very much.