Citizenship and Immigration Committee on Nov. 17th, 2011

[The Chair, Conservative, David Tilson]

I have no problem with that, Mr. Davies, as long as it's been translated.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

It has been, Mr. Chairman.

[The Chair, Conservative, David Tilson]

Then it can be filed with the clerk—

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

Thank you, Mr. Chairman.

[The Chair, Conservative, David Tilson]

—and then distributed to other members in due course.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

A link has been provided to all of the members and we have copies here as well.

[The Chair, Conservative, David Tilson]

Oh, they have that now. Okay.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

I'd like to quote from this report and some other things we've heard about the backlog. We know there is a one-million-member backlog. From the report prepared by CIC, it indicates that:

For the past 25 years, Canada has maintained immigration levels averaging between 225,000 and 250,000 immigrants per year.

We know, of course, in the last 10 years or so we've created a backlog of a million.

CIC reports that:

As natural population growth in Canada slows, with fertility rates below replacement levels, immigration will be an increasingly important source of population and labour force growth.

It quoted a 2009 C.D. Howe Institute study that concludes that the current 0.8% of the population—that's in 2010, and it's actually 0.7% this year—would have to increase nearly 4% in the short term to stabilize Canada's current old age dependency ratio.

CIC reports that:

With an aging population, the number of retirements from the labour force is increasing, currently reflecting the “bulge” of aging baby boomers.

—which we're all aware of. CIC says that:

Very soon, the number of new entrants from Canadian schools and universities will equal (or fall short of) the number of retirees, leaving immigration responsible for all labour force growth.

CIC says:

Without immigration, labour force growth would slow, making overall economic growth more difficult to achieve.

The minister, this summer, acknowledged that Canada would need roughly one million immigrants per year in order to maintain the ratio of working-age citizens to retirees. It has been pointed out that the proportion of Canadians aged 60 and over is projected to increase from roughly one-fifth today to nearly one-third by 2020.

In testimony before this committee we heard from Mr. Justin Taylor from the restaurant industry, who said that the restaurant industry outlook indicates that 30% of restaurants are concerned about the shortage of qualified labour now. According to the Canadian Tourism Human Resource Council, the restaurant sector will face a significant labour shortage by 2025, with over 142,000 full-year jobs projected to go unfulfilled.

So my question is, in the light of our changing demographics, if we do not increase our immigration to, say, Australia's level of 0.09%—we heard testimony from Mr. Busby about that—and we stay at the same level we've had for the last 25 years, what is CIC's plan for meeting our economic needs in the next five years and beyond?

[Les Linklater]

Thank you for the question.

Mr. Chair, when we talk about immigration and the role it plays in supporting the labour market, it is one of many tools that is available to employers and to Canadians. The role of school leavers was mentioned in terms of entering the labour market. They now represent the overwhelming majority of new entrants into the labour market.

With the demographic trends we're looking at, it is true that immigration will become more important as a source of both population and labour force growth, but I think we also have to look at immigration in the context of other labour market, industrial, and social programs--for example, employment insurance, as well as investments that employers make in terms of machinery and other capital investments for productivity gains. There are a number of factors that would come into play in looking at longer-term trends and projections, certainly factors that fall well beyond my department as well as the government or governments in general.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

Fair enough.

Mr. Linklater, caps have been put forward as one way of dealing with the backlog, and the skilled worker program has been touted as one example of this. When ministerial instruction number one was issued in 2008 and the minister promised that applications received after 2008 until 2010 would be processed within 6 to 12 months, how many applications received after MI-1 pursuant to that were processed within 6 to 12 months?

[Les Linklater]

I don't have that figure at hand, Mr. Chair, but we can certainly provide it to the committee through the clerk.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

So we can't really tell if that was successful or not.

[Les Linklater]

We do know that in the interim, between the time the instructions were announced in the budget in February and when the first instruction came into force in November, we were able to make significant inroads in backlog reduction. As I mentioned in response to an earlier question, that backlog of pre-C-50 cases has actually fallen by 50%.

[Claudette Deschênes]

I might add that cases have been processed with the ministerial instructions, and of course the period between the budget and the first ministerial instruction...those cases accumulated time. That was unfortunate, but overall we've been able to process those cases, on average, between 12 and 18 months, which is much faster than we've ever been able to do before.

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

Right, but the 6-month to 12-month figure that was announced by the minister was not met after MI-1. Is that fair to say?

[Claudette Deschênes]

It was met initially, and we've agreed that MI-1 didn't do all that we wanted it to do--

[Don Davies, NDP, Vancouver Kingsway, BC]

Fair enough.

I'd like to move to something else because I only have a brief amount of time.

The CIC backgrounder says that increasing levels is one way to deal with the backlog, provided you have sufficient resources and there is public acceptance of that. You said that if levels are not increased there will be trade-offs. We know in the live-in caregiver program, for instance, in the 2012 report, they are slashing live-in caregiver visas to a target of 9,000 this year from issuing 13,000 in 2010, and a target range of 12,000 to 16,000 in 2011. We don't know what the final number is because we're still in the year, but certainly we're talking 13,000 or 14,000 down to 9,000. Is that the kind of trade-off that we're looking at if we don't increase levels, that we'll have to cut visas in certain programs, like, obviously, the significant 25% to 44% cut in live-in caregivers?

[The Chair, Conservative, David Tilson]

Unless it's a yes or no answer, we're going to have to end it.

[Les Linklater]

There is a balance to be found within the levels planned, and that does involve looking at pressures in the various categories and where we think the inventories are and the demand is.

[The Chair, Conservative, David Tilson]

Thank you.

Mr. Lamoureux.

[Kevin Lamoureux, Liberal, Winnipeg North, MB]

I want to go back to the super visas because I think there is some clarity that needs to be provided. If I have a child or a grandchild living in Canada, am I eligible to apply for a super visa?

[Les Linklater]

Yes.

[Claudette Deschênes]

Yes, you are.

[Kevin Lamoureux, Liberal, Winnipeg North, MB]

If I'm in the queue, I'm already in the process, do I have to withdraw my process or can I apply for the 10-year super visa and still be in the queue?

[Claudette Deschênes]

Yes, you can still apply and be in the queue.