Finance committee  We believe that there will be some profit shifting, and the amount that you mentioned is in our report. That amounts to about 1% of corporate income tax revenues, overall, in one year, as a result of some profit shifting, as you indicated. That's based on the current policy regime in the United States.

Finance committee  The first point I'd make is that the U.S. has reduced its tax rates, but they are bringing them into line with Canada's. Over the last several years the U.S. tax rates for corporate income tax were significantly above Canadian tax rates. Also, the U.S. tax cuts are temporary in nature.

Finance committee  Thank you. Good afternoon, Mr. Chair, vice-chairs and members of the committee. I would like to thank you for the invitation to appear before you today to discuss our October 2018 economic and fiscal outlook, which we published last week, exactly a week ago. Consistent with the PBO's legislated mandate, my office produces an independent economic and fiscal outlook and today, as you mentioned, I am joined by Chris Matier and Trevor Shaw.

Government Operations committee  That's a very hypothetical question. It would be quite hazardous for me to try to answer because it depends on what would have been, what assumptions we make as to what the level of transfers would have been in the absence of past policy actions. For sure, if the health transfers were higher than they are now, the provinces would be in a better position.

Government Operations committee  In the fiscal sustainability report that we released last week, we estimate that the federal government has fiscal room amounting to $29 billion. That could be a mix of tax cuts or an increase in expenditures. Expenditures could be defined as increased transfers to provinces and territories.

Government Operations committee  Yes, there is always—

Government Operations committee  No, the government always—

Government Operations committee  Yes. The government could still introduce ad hoc measures to respond to an emerging crisis. It's happened in the past. For example, in 2001 there was a December budget to respond to the crisis of September 11. It's possible to have budget documents or updates on steroids, so to speak, that include budgetary measures.

Government Operations committee  The second part, sadly, is not part of my mandate. I'm not the tax collector.

Government Operations committee  I think it would certainly make your job easier to understand what's in the mains and how that reconciles with the government's priorities expressed through a budget. Right now, I think having the mains reflect only part of the government's priorities is not very helpful, because a chunk of it has to be found in the in the supplementaries.

Government Operations committee  That's up to CRA. They have some very aggressive and efficient people at CRA. Some of our citizens experience that the hard way.

Government Operations committee  On the first part of your question, on how will I get information from the CRA, knowing how to ask the question and what to ask for is often key. CRA is by its very nature a risk averse institution. They have the privacy of Canadians' tax information at the top of their concerns.

Government Operations committee  I would see it being probably a February budget. Having seen a couple of budget cycles in my life, I would say that it could be in January, but February would probably be the latest you could realistically have a budget and have funding or initiatives in the budget reflected in the mains.

Government Operations committee  Probably a bit later, if you leave enough time for TBS officials to include budget initiatives to be included in the budget, so that when the budget gets debated in the House shortly thereafter, probably sometime in early April, you have main estimates that fully reflect budget proposals.

Government Operations committee  Yes, there's one important drawback. It removes the government's flexibility to move the budget cycle to respond to unforeseen events. For example, if there is uncertainty in the world markets or if there is a financial crisis that has just developed.