Finance committee  I have just one quick point on construction and infrastructure. Typically, because there is less leakage—most of the money is spent domestically—it normally has a higher multiplier than some other spending. In terms of spending on universities, essentially the difference is that

Finance committee  I think I would just confirm what Mr. Page said. We used the sensitivity numbers, which should reflect—

Finance committee  —all the shocks to the system. This is not a detailed forecast; this is just applying a rule that the Department of Finance has provided. If we were to do a full fiscal projection, the numbers probably would have been somewhat different.

Finance committee  Just for clarification, Mr. McCallum, the quarterly number we show on slide eight is our own estimate, PBO's estimate, not the basis for the fiscal projections we provided. The fiscal projection we provided in this document is based on private sector average forecasts.

Finance committee  It probably would have been worse, but we haven't done a full fiscal projection for the full year. So this is just for us, just the first half of the year. It is based on monitoring of indicators that are available. So if we were to apply this throughout the year, obviously the n

Finance committee  Again, we apply only fiscal sensitivities that we are provided by the Department of Finance, whereas TD has gone, I assume, with full projections based on their assumption about EI, other assumptions in terms of share of corporate profits relative to personal income—the other fac

Finance committee  Well, sir, we don't study the American economy in detail, but obviously in doing our own forecast there are assumptions made. The general view of the U.S. economy is that the recovery is going to start in the second half and is going to continue in 2010. Based on IMF projections,

Finance committee  In doing our forecast, as we mentioned earlier, we use a private sector survey forecast. Those numbers from the private sector reflect an assumption for the U.S. economy. Also, the model we use to calibrate those forecasts, to do further work, and to do our fiscal projection ha

Government Operations committee  It's a complex project. We have to look at the possibility of doing it. We need the data required to do it. If the committee requires that we do it, we could.

Government Operations committee  It is possible to estimate what was injected into the economy, but it can be very difficult to estimate the impact on jobs. In fact, we would have to look at a scenario where the credit would not be involved, but this isn't possible. It's impossible to observe that.

Procedure and House Affairs committee  The information dealt only with the projection, and not with the underlying assumptions or models the government used to develop those estimates.

Finance committee  Sir, when we do our projections, we don't go sector by sector, company by company. We provide—

Finance committee  As I said, sir, we don't go sector by sector because there could also be a reduction in other sectors. We don't do that. It's an aggregate forecast.

Finance committee  On whether we are more pessimistic, in fact the end point of the forecast, over the five years.... We are almost at the same point. It's the transition.

Finance committee  So we are a little bit below the private sector in the short term—