Evidence of meeting #16 for Finance in the 40th Parliament, 2nd Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was stimulus.
A recording is available from Parliament.
5:05 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
We haven't received any information, Mr. Laforest. Nada.
5:05 p.m.
Conservative
5:05 p.m.
Conservative
Ted Menzies Conservative Macleod, AB
Thank you.
It's very appropriate timing.
Please remember, Mr. Page, that I went to bat for you after the last session to clarify that you were getting the information you had requested. I have confirmation that up to that point, you had received everything you had requested. Up to this point there's one document.... And I realize you folks are esteemed economists and that you don't think it's a matter of cabinet confidentiality—and I didn't say it was a cabinet document—or you don't think it would breach cabinet confidentiality. But we have legal opinions that say it would. That's why you haven't received that document.
By way of comment to Mr. Matier, who said you had asked for data on corporate profits, wages, and salaries—
5:10 p.m.
NDP
Thomas Mulcair NDP Outremont, QC
On a point of order, Mr. Chair, when a member quotes a document, we can ask him to bring it before the committee. Mr. Menzies has just mentioned that he possesses a legal opinion. I think for the benefit of this committee, the least he could do would be to table that legal opinion. It would be good for us to be able to look at it.
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
Ted Menzies Conservative Macleod, AB
I have verbal confirmation right now, and please forgive me, but I don't have the document in front of me.
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
Ted Menzies Conservative Macleod, AB
I'm just trying to clear the record, Thomas. I'm not making a partisan comment here. I'm just trying to make sure this is accurate.
5:10 p.m.
NDP
Thomas Mulcair NDP Outremont, QC
Mr. Chair, I want your ruling on my point of order. I'm allowed as a member to ask anyone who cites a document to table it. He says he has a legal opinion. Now he says he doesn't. But if he does have a verbal legal opinion, maybe he could have it confirmed in writing and table it before this committee, so we can all know whether or not that opinion says what he says it says—even though it doesn't exist.
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
Ted Menzies Conservative Macleod, AB
I would be glad to do my best to provide that to you, Tom.
If I can continue, Mr. Matier had suggested that your office had asked for corporate profits, wages, and salaries. My understanding is that was never requested. My understanding is also that you put all your requests on your website, and that is not on your website. So we have at least a difference of opinion here.
Going back to my first question to Mr. Page, I was trying to flesh out what the actual difference is in fundamentals between the Canadian economy and the weakness of the U.S. economy. As I said, in the debt-to-GDP numbers, the ratio is drastically different. What is the fundamental difference? Has the stimulus package in the U.S. been as effective as hoped, as what we're projecting here?
5:10 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Well, Mr. Menzies, I'll start with the economic question first, and then we'll go to the data issue. I'll be brief.
It may be that we could provide.... Maybe it would be helpful for you if we unpacked this a little bit for the committee members, to do a more substantive Canada-U.S. comparison of fundamentals. We'd be happy to do that, and we would look at some of the imbalances that exist in the United States, what has happened to those imbalances recently, and what imbalances we may have had in the Canadian economy. By that, I mean consumer balance sheets, corporate balance sheets, external balances, trade balances, fiscal balances, and we could show basically the nature of some of those fundamentals, look at savings rates. We'd be happy to do that if you'd like to do that. It would be complementary to the report we released earlier that you referred to that looked at the GDP numbers.
But I could say, sir, that even if you look backwards and you look at slide five as an example and you look at Canada-U.S. monthly real GDP and you look at the performances in 2008, you can get a sense, looking at that very high-level headline number, that there are not substantial differences in terms of real gross domestic product when you look backwards.
When you look forward, I think there are some differences in the forecasts, but if you want us to undertake that kind of work in our study, we'd be happy to do that. And Mr. Wallace is nodding as well.
5:10 p.m.
Conservative
Ted Menzies Conservative Macleod, AB
Here is one other quick question, if we can, on slide 20 or page 20. Mr. Dechert just brought this to my attention. Can you explain, on the second graph, the difference between.... This is the impact on employment of budget. You have 2010, and the last column is 2010-Q4. Now, are you talking 160,000 jobs total in 2010, and then 189,000 for the fourth quarter? I'd like just a clarification, if you could, on that.
5:10 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Actually, on this slide, sir, these numbers come right from the federal budget. Yes, actually—
5:15 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Sorry, 2009 and 2010 are annual average numbers, and the Q4s are just reflective of what happens in the fourth quarter.
5:15 p.m.
Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Chair, could I just ask Chris to briefly deal with the information issue? The question was raised earlier.
5:15 p.m.
Senior Advisor, Economic and Fiscal Analysis, Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, Library of Parliament
Thank you.
The data we requested.... We provided a list of all the series we needed in an attached spreadsheet, both for the fall economic and fiscal statement as well as for budget 2009. The projections we requested...the numonics for all these series are available. We have a good knowledge of the macro-econometric model the department uses to do forecasting, and indeed we've used it ourselves in our past jobs there. So that information is provided in detail; I think there are over 100 series that are being requested. But we are requesting the status quo basis projections, so this would be independent or excluding any measures that might be considered at that time.
On the cabinet confidence issue, again, these are projections that are shared with the Bank of Canada and with the OECD. And as Mr. Page has suggested, they have been provided to private sector forecasters in the past and have been published in Department of Finance documents.
5:15 p.m.
Conservative
5:15 p.m.
Liberal
John McCallum Liberal Markham—Unionville, ON
Thank you.
Maybe I could pursue this question of information a little bit. I find it hard, as was just referred to, that a document could be considered a cabinet secret and not be provided to you when that same information is provided to private sector forecasters. That's a little difficult to understand.
I also find it difficult to understand how the government side is boasting about their website and how powerful it is, and my staff checked the website just a few minutes ago and they're still asking the Senate to pass the budget. And that was two weeks ago. So is this the government's idea of an up-to-date website that will keep Canadians informed?
My question, Mr. Page, to you is this. First of all, I heard you say that no information from the Department of Finance on projections has been forthcoming.
5:15 p.m.
Liberal
John McCallum Liberal Markham—Unionville, ON
Let me ask you a few other questions.
You had a meeting with the Minister of Finance and the President of the Treasury Board, and I think you said that they said they would take the issues under advisement. Is that right?
