Fisheries Committee on April 28th, 2014

[Dr. Pierre Pepin]

Yes. The limit reference points are based on the historical levels of catch and abundance, and despite the fact that the stock has declined substantially, it is still above its limit reference point right now. So it's still considered to be in the healthy zone. It might be close to being...and I'm not sure about whether it is or not. I'd have to check on that.

[Lawrence MacAulay, Liberal, Cardigan, PE]

Thank you very much.

On page 5 number 6, you indicated a decrease of 33% since 2013. That's the lowest level in the time series. What's the time series and where does this put it?

[Dr. Pierre Pepin]

The time series you're looking at actually goes back to 1996.

If you look at the purple dots, or the purple line, you can see that in 1996 there were about 300,000 metric tons in this stock and the current estimate for the fishable biomass is on the order of 212,000 metric tons, so it is at the lowest level since 1996. That's the frame of reference. We have no assessments prior to that, unfortunately.

[Lawrence MacAulay, Liberal, Cardigan, PE]

Okay. In number 7 you've indicated that it is in decrease by 48%, and I believe you indicated or suggested, or the scientific direction was, to have no direct fishing. Do I understand that's the case, or are they fishing there?

[Dr. Pierre Pepin]

The scientific council at NAFO decided that the advice was that there should be no directed fishing, and in 2013 there was directed fishing. The fisheries commission, which made the decision on whether to allow or not allow or follow the recommendations, did make that decision. I was not involved with the fisheries commission.

[Lawrence MacAulay, Liberal, Cardigan, PE]

But it would be against your advice, and what was TAC?

[Dr. Pierre Pepin]

I really don't know. I can check.

[David Gillis]

I'm not sure. Maybe Jean knows the TAC, but I believe once the council received the scientific advice from the scientific commission there was a sharp reduction in that fishery but not a closure. We don't know what the future will bring, but it wouldn't surprise us if there were a closure of that fishery in the near future. That's to be seen.

Jean, do you have the figures?

[Jean Landry, Acting Director General, Ecosystem Science Directorate, Ecosystems and Oceans Science Sector, Department of Fisheries and Oceans]

Yes, I think the TAC has been reduced by 50% to 4,300 tonnes. Previously it was at 8,600 tonnes for this SFA.

[Lawrence MacAulay, Liberal, Cardigan, PE]

Being scientists—and we have a new chair—I suppose you don't speculate, but do you see a reduction in the quota or the TAC in the following year? Or do you see a decline? What would be your observations on that? Do you expect a decline next year, or is that a fair question?

[David Gillis]

I don't have the assessment for SFA 7. Maybe Pierre has it available to see what the projections would be, but we'll see what advice there is.

[Dr. Pierre Pepin]

If the total allowable catch of 4,300 tonnes is caught, it will result in an exploitation rate on the order of 14% of the stock being fished, and so the stock is expected to decline.

[Lawrence MacAulay, Liberal, Cardigan, PE]

So, it's on the verge of being shut down.

[Dr. Pierre Pepin]

Yes.

[Lawrence MacAulay, Liberal, Cardigan, PE]

Okay.

On page 7, which is on the general warming trend, you indicated that there is a warm phase and a cold phase, and also that cod and capelin reproduce faster in the warm water, and the shrimp in the cold water. Also, we have gone through these phases over the last number of years. In fact, what you're telling the committee, Doctor, is that climate change has no effect on what's taken place in this area at all. Would that be your observation?

[Dr. Pierre Pepin]

Climate change is part of the signal we see in the general warming trend in the North Atlantic. However, most of the environmental conditions that we have seen in the region are still within the range of observations that we have seen in the past. We have set a few records, that's true, and we've had particularly warm years. So climate change is a component of things, but what we're seeing is mostly the general average cyclical level of variability that we see in these systems. We can expect that this underlying level of variability—despite the fact that the baseline associated with climate change—is going to continue to increase, so we will have warmer temperatures. You are still going to see those large cycles that are, in fact, larger in magnitude than the overall change that we're going to see with climate change.

[Lawrence MacAulay, Liberal, Cardigan, PE]

They'll be warmer, but they will not be cold.

[The Chair, Conservative, Rodney Weston]

Thank you, Mr. MacAulay.

[Dr. Pierre Pepin]

We will see cold periods and we will also see warm periods. We're just adding to the baseline.

[The Chair, Conservative, Rodney Weston]

Thank you, Mr. MacAulay, you're over your time now.

We'll go to Mr. Sopuck now.

[Robert Sopuck, Conservative, Dauphin—Swan River—Marquette, MB]

Thank you.

I want to compliment the department on this work. In a previous life, I did stock assessment and I thought a 400-square kilometre lake was a big lake. But when I see what you folks have to do over tens of thousands of square kilometres, my hat's off to you. To come up with confidence limits of 25% is, in my view, truly remarkable. Contrary to what you may have heard around the table here, there are some of us around here who think you do pretty significant, important, and accurate work given the conditions you have to work under.

On page 7, in terms of the environmental conditions in the Newfoundland-Labrador area, it actually looks like a random walk to me in terms of that particular graph. Were these trends statistically significant?

[Dr. Pierre Pepin]

Yes, they definitely are.

[Robert Sopuck, Conservative, Dauphin—Swan River—Marquette, MB]

Okay.

When I look at, for example, in 1965, the index was as high as it was in 2005 and 2010, which were sort of high-value years. Obviously, the cyclical nature of these variables is something that the North Atlantic has experienced since time immemorial.

[Dr. Pierre Pepin]

Yes. In fact, there are records that go back in excess of 1,000 years that show periodicity on the order of a cyclical pattern every 50 to 80 years. It's not a precise cycle, but it is a very reproducible cycle, and that's on top of the cycle associated with climate change.

[Robert Sopuck, Conservative, Dauphin—Swan River—Marquette, MB]

Yes. Again, having spent a bit of a career in this kind of field, I'm very wary of long-term predictions, given how variable Mother Nature is. It'll be interesting to see over the next decade whether your prediction of a warming trend occurs, given that in the last 15 years a global cooling was shown to have occurred in spite of all of the predictions.

In terms of the shrimp themselves, it's not overfishing then that caused the shrimp to decline. Are we fairly certain of that?