Evidence of meeting #103 for Foreign Affairs and International Development in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was continent.
A recording is available from Parliament.
5:15 p.m.
Liberal
Sameer Zuberi Liberal Pierrefonds—Dollard, QC
I'm sorry.
Mr. Vircoulon, do you want to make any comments?
5:15 p.m.
Research Fellow of the French Institute for International Affairs, As an Individual
I think the three developments I talked about, namely the expansion of conflicts, democratic backsliding and reversal of alliances—
5:15 p.m.
Liberal
Sameer Zuberi Liberal Pierrefonds—Dollard, QC
You've already given us that information in your testimony.
Do you have anything else to add?
5:15 p.m.
Research Fellow of the French Institute for International Affairs, As an Individual
No, those are the three points I wanted to make about the region.
5:15 p.m.
Liberal
5:15 p.m.
Bloc
Yves Perron Bloc Berthier—Maskinongé, QC
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
Thank you to the witnesses for being here today. We appreciate it.
Mr. Vircoulon, we've seen a wave of military coups in the coup belt, which includes Sudan, Chad, Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea.
What are the repercussions of these coups on the relations that western countries like France and Canada can have with these regions and on the influence that we can maintain or perhaps even improve?
Could you comment on that?
5:15 p.m.
Research Fellow of the French Institute for International Affairs, As an Individual
When it comes to France and Canada, the impact on the two countries will be very different, obviously.
France has been very active, particularly on the military side, in the war against jihadism. As I said, diplomatic relations with Mali and Niger broke down and the French army left those countries.
With regard to Canada, I don't know what kind of relations it has had with those particular countries, but I think they have rejected France, the UN and the European Union. So we are seeing a rejection of western countries in general, including the United States.
I think that Canada obviously has to stand with its American and European allies in this situation. Therefore, they have to work together to define their position on the three military juntas we are talking about.
5:15 p.m.
Bloc
Yves Perron Bloc Berthier—Maskinongé, QC
Actually, that was the gist of my question, which I may have worded poorly at first.
To compensate in some way for this breakdown, Canada could perhaps play an auxiliary role as a third country that was not directly involved before the events.
You talk about coordination, but, in practical terms, should we try to have more diplomatic contacts, to increase our presence in the region?
5:15 p.m.
Research Fellow of the French Institute for International Affairs, As an Individual
The simple truth is that I don't think those regimes are asking for any of that. They are in the process of forging military co-operation, and they will try to build economic co-operation with Russia.
At the moment, their approach is focused on the rejection of westerners as well as ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States.
Therefore, to take a position as a mediator or a dialogue facilitator with people who, at this time, are unwilling to co-operate does not seem diplomatically realistic.
5:15 p.m.
Bloc
Yves Perron Bloc Berthier—Maskinongé, QC
Thank you for your honest answer.
We're looking at how we can help play a role in the region to try to encourage the potential return of democracy.
Could you tell us about the situation in Senegal, a state about which you noted some good news following the presidential elections?
Couldn't Senegal be a place from where we could build bridges to the difficult areas?
5:15 p.m.
Research Fellow of the French Institute for International Affairs, As an Individual
Indeed, Senegal is the good news spot, since President Macky Sall's attempt to remain in power during last year's election failed.
However, given that this country's new government is still being set up, I think we have to wait.
This is a government with a pan-Africanist agenda. We will therefore have to wait a few months to find out whether the country will take the political path of the neighbouring military juntas or maintain a moderate approach towards westerners. At this point, no one knows.
We have to wait for the government to establish itself and take its first diplomatic steps before we know what direction it will take.
5:20 p.m.
Bloc
Yves Perron Bloc Berthier—Maskinongé, QC
Right, and I don't want to be negative, but couldn't we be proactive and act before things go wrong?
Wouldn't we have a role to play in encouraging this government to move in the right direction and perhaps maintain good relations with the west?
5:20 p.m.
Research Fellow of the French Institute for International Affairs, As an Individual
All western countries must play a diplomatic role, but not necessarily by being proactive with respect to the new Senegalese government currently being formed. That would probably be a little too pushy.
We have to wait for this government to take its first steps and make overtures, rather than actively approaching it, which could be interpreted by the government as a form of pressure.
5:20 p.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi
Thank you, Mr. Perron.
We will go next to Ms. McPherson.
You have five minutes.
5:20 p.m.
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
I would like to thank all of the witnesses today for being with us.
This is such a large topic. There are so many things we can discuss.
We've heard so much about Sudan, and we've heard so much about the devastation that's happening in Sudan right now. Mr. Hudson, I know you wrote about the situation inside Sudan being desperate, and that there has been a “virtual collapse of state authority”. Could you talk a little bit about what could have been done to prevent what's happening in Sudan? What could the international community, and Canada in particular, do to help build peace? What lessons should we be learning from the conflict that we see in Sudan right now?
5:20 p.m.
Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and International Studies
The conflict in Sudan, I think, was entirely predictable. You have an army that has been in need of reform for more than a generation, and it has been attacked by a militia of its own creation, which carried out a genocide in Darfur 20 years ago. What brought them to this battle was an effort to reform both and incorporate them into one new national army.
We could have seen this coming, I think, from much further away. We didn't take the steps, because I don't think there was an appropriate diplomatic coalition underpinning the negotiations that were going on between these two parties. They were left, in many respects, to their own devices to negotiate a way forward. Then, when there was little recourse but to fight, there was no one there to step in and prevent them from taking this step. I think there has been a lack of diplomatic attention leading up to this battle.
Of course, once the battle began, we were all caught a bit flat-footed. Most western embassies, in the early days of this conflict when we could have perhaps steered it on a different course, were all far too concerned with getting their own nationals and their own diplomats out of Sudan in the first two, three or four weeks of the fighting. When that happened, we lost our footing in the country. We lost our ability to impact decision-making by those leaders, and we have been in a diplomatic deficit ever since this conflict started.
We are only now beginning to try to gain back some momentum. There was a conference in Paris earlier this week. We reached the one-year anniversary.
We now have a special envoy from the United States. When I worked on Sudan 20 years ago, there were a dozen special envoys. There was a diplomatic tempo that was maintained over the course of many months. That is missing. I think many western countries have allowed gulf state actors to take on a greater role in trying not to mediate but to direct this conflict in ways that benefit their interests. We need to see a reassertion of western human rights values around this conflict going forward if we hope to see it come to a positive conclusion, not just for our own interests but for the interests of the Sudanese people.
5:25 p.m.
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
Thank you.
Mr. Tieku, I saw you nodding as well. Do you have anything you would like to add to that?
5:25 p.m.
Professor, Politics and International Relations, King’s University College, Western University, As an Individual
I think he has it spot-on.
What I would add is that we could have proactively gone behind the scenes with the African Union, because it has been engaged in that particular discussion. However, it was isolated in the international system, because there were so many tracks that were put in place. Number one would have been better engagement with the African Union, which could have actually forestalled some of them.
A broader point is the fact that we leave African countries without the most important thing, which is leadership. We leave it to nature to devise it. Just imagine setting aside the $3 billion that we spend on the African continent, for example, specifically for training the next generation of African leaders. You would see what a difference that would make in Sudan. We have to be proactive rather than reactive. That is the reason we have to move away from firefighting. It's too expensive, but because doing the long-term thing is not the sexiest thing, we don't invest in it.
What I'm saying is that we have to reposition ourselves to be more proactive and prevent some of these things from happening.
5:25 p.m.
NDP
Heather McPherson NDP Edmonton Strathcona, AB
So it's very much about the investment in diplomatic efforts. I think the idea of the diplomatic coalition and the gap that was there is very key.
How much time do I have, Mr. Chair?
5:25 p.m.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Ali Ehsassi
Thank you.
We'll go to the next round. For this round, we have three minutes for the Conservatives and the Liberals.
Mr. Chong, you have three minutes.
5:25 p.m.
Conservative
Michael Chong Conservative Wellington—Halton Hills, ON
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I would like to ask Cameron Hudson a follow-up question to Ms. McPherson's question.
You mentioned that the most recent conflict in Sudan might have been headed off if there had been an appropriate western diplomatic coalition and intensive diplomatic work in the early weeks of that conflict. I would like you take a step back from that particular unconstitutional change in power. You referenced in your opening remarks nine coups d’état in Africa recently, seven I believe in the Sahel since 2020. What is driving these unconstitutional changes in power?