Government Operations Committee on Dec. 8th, 2009

[Paul Rochon]

--our main point is that if you want to use those reports that you're getting from recipients of the moneys to calculate total jobs, it's going to be very difficult.

[The Chair, Liberal, Yasmin Ratansi]

Thank you.

Mr. Holder, for five minutes.

[Ed Holder, Conservative, London West, ON]

Thank you, Madam Chair.

I'd like to thank our guests for attending today.

Madam Baltacioglu and Mr. Forster, you're starting to feel like old friends. You've certainly been here a number of times. Perhaps we can hang around your place for coffee sometime.

[Voices]

Oh, oh!

[A voice]

Oh, boy; this is getting better.

[Ed Holder, Conservative, London West, ON]

I do want to say thank you, because you've been very professional, and your testimony has been very helpful.

I'll presume, Mr. Rochon and Mr. Robidoux, that your testimony is equally helpful. Actually, it has been.

I say this quite sincerely, because I think a comment was made by the ombudsman a couple of meetings back that sometimes it doesn't feel as if we as members of Parliament appreciate the hard work of our officials. I just know I speak for all of us here at this table when I say well done.

Mr. Rochon, you mentioned at the outset in your comments about the 220,000 jobs created or maintained as a result of Canada's economic action plan. Then I heard you make a reference to the Conference Board and U of T in subsequent testimony. Also you went to them to backstop your numbers, as it were. You determined, as a result of that, that the numbers you've indicated are actually conservative estimates--good word.

Here's my more practical question. You said they used higher multiples. Based on your estimates that 220,000 jobs were created, could I get a sense, using those other two centres of reference, what they might have estimated the jobs to be created?

[Benoit Robidoux]

I can answer this.

First, we got their output multipliers and their multipliers from output to jobs. I think we'll have to check with them first that they...they gave us their multipliers through the budget process. They never see the final result and the stimulus.

I think we would like to get back to them and ask if they still agree with their multipliers, which I think they will.

In terms of the numbers we get by applying the multipliers, I guess we could run it. The only thing I could tell you is that with the Conference Board, the number will be slightly higher than 220,000. With the University of Toronto model, the number will be significantly higher.

I would say that the Conference Board of Canada, in the low range of the two for most of the multipliers...but were fairly high. As Paul was saying, in terms of translating output impact into job impact, their multipliers were fairly large. For example, for...and infrastructure, the one I looked at before coming here, in both cases, their multipliers between output and job were higher than what we assumed in both cases.

But we'll have to look at the numbers. In one case, I would say it would be significantly higher. For the Conference Board, it would be slightly higher.

[Ed Holder, Conservative, London West, ON]

Mr. Robidoux, I'm not one to go back and ask you for a make-work project, but I would be grateful to receive those numbers. Let me share with you why that is.

It seems to me this government has been beaten up, fairly or otherwise, and I would suggest to you not so fairly, in terms of jobs created. While it may not be an exact science, when credible sources like your own and the other two forecasting groups you've mentioned have a range, it might be rather interesting to say at least under 220,000 jobs and “depending on”. This isn't polling. This is using some reference points to try to come up with credible numbers.

I would like to know that range. I think it would be useful for this committee to know that range. For the record, at the lowest end we're talking 220,000 jobs and potentially higher.

But I'll come back to make another point.

[The Chair, Liberal, Yasmin Ratansi]

Mr. Holder, when you finish, that will be your last question.

[Ed Holder, Conservative, London West, ON]

But I'm doing so well, Madam Chair.

[The Chair, Liberal, Yasmin Ratansi]

I know, I know. You're not as charming as Mr. Warkentin.

[Voices]

Oh, oh!

[Ed Holder, Conservative, London West, ON]

I know. He is compelling.

Let me come back here. You talked about money actually spent, jobs actually created, but I think there's a missing piece there, and that is the legacy of needed facilities as well. Whether it's in my city of London, where city hall renovations...

Again, there are three partners in this, lest we all forget. We have provincial and municipal colleagues.

At any rate, we have those kinds of upgrades. We even have a soccer pitch. I'd suggest to you that some projects clearly are more job-intensive than others, and some much less, but on average--

[The Chair, Liberal, Yasmin Ratansi]

Ask your question quickly.

[Ed Holder, Conservative, London West, ON]

—you're saying that you're comfortable with your multipliers for your purpose.

[Paul Rochon]

Yes, we are.

[The Chair, Liberal, Yasmin Ratansi]

Thank you.

Madam Bourgeois.

[Diane Bourgeois, Bloc, Terrebonne—Blainville, QC]

Thank you, Madam Chair.

My question is directed to either Mr. Forster or Ms. Baltacioglu. As you know, elections were held in Quebec and that resulted in about a three-month delay in the submission of infrastructure projects and in the flow of stimulus funds. We know that the deadline for funding these projects is January 29, 2010.

Recently, the Fédération des municipalités du Québec and the Union des municipalités du Québec called upon the government and senior officials, including yourself, to show some flexibility.

Have you discussed the situation amongst yourselves? Can we expect an announcement to be made eventually, one that would give Quebec permission to submit projects after the deadline, given that many Quebec municipalities lost three months?

[Yaprak Baltacioglu]

Thank you very much for the question.

Our priority has been, and is, working with the Quebec government to get the commitments in place. As you know, within Quebec's share, especially in PRECO and waste water and water projects, we are working with the Quebec government and we're hoping to meet the deadlines.

So that's where we are. We have been having conversations with the municipalities, but I can't really say more than that.

[Diane Bourgeois, Bloc, Terrebonne—Blainville, QC]

However, if I understand correctly, you are open to being more flexible.

[Yaprak Baltacioglu]

The government's position has been outlined in the December report to Parliament. That's the position that's stated. Our minister repeated this position I think in the Standing Committee on Transport, Infrastructure and Communities last week.

[Diane Bourgeois, Bloc, Terrebonne—Blainville, QC]

Mr. Rochon, did you in fact say that a job saved is a job created?

[Paul Rochon]

No, I said that in recessionary times, when we talk about 220,000 jobs created or maintained, we are more than likely referring to jobs that have been saved rather than created.

[Diane Bourgeois, Bloc, Terrebonne—Blainville, QC]

Are you saying then that the announced figure of 220,000 jobs could refer to jobs saved?

[Paul Rochon]

Certainly.The number of jobs is up by about 35,000 over March 2009. Without the stimulus program, jobs would have been lost.