The argument presents a very complex picture of both opportunities and threats. It is a vast region with enormous resources. Something like 22% of potential fossil fuel resources are in the Arctic. The temptation is tremendous. As the Arctic ice melts, the navigation potential, the northern sea route, could dramatically change trade patterns. This is what China is interested in, and other countries are interested as well.
Sovereignty protection takes a more complex form in terms of resource protection, in terms of looking at the environmental threat. This takes me back to how we can we deal with these multiple threats that operate at so many levels. Even the United States cannot do it alone. Even they need to do it jointly with other allies.
Our response has to be part of a comprehensive strategy that has to operate at many levels: the political, the military, the psychological, the economic level, and NORAD and NATO come into it. One of the difficulties has been that Russia has viewed NATO as this pathetic weak giant that is incapable of action, not because it doesn't have the resources, but because it doesn't have the willpower; it doesn't have the capacity to mobilize and respond effectively.
While Russia uses cruise missiles.... I think it was my colleague who said it wasn't necessary—but it was necessary in a sense for Russia, because they needed to make a point. They wanted to send a message. This is what Russia is doing. They're sending all sorts of messages, and we have not been sending messages back.
So symbolism is very important. When we look at the type of aircraft that we're going to get, it's not merely a matter of dollars and cents. It's a matter of proper integration in terms of what kind of message you send to the other side. You could be penny-wise and pound foolish. Sometimes you spend extra money because you create a certain kind of image.
When I spent some time many years ago at Stanford University as a visiting scholar, Milton Friedman was there on loan from University of Chicago. I was working on the Warsaw Pact, and writing on it. We had this chat about what cost means. He said that as an economist, sometimes you need to spend a certain amount of money and you have to look at the value of it differently than in purely economic terms. On occasion, you might spend a dollar and you can inflict 10 dollars' worth of damage on the other side and it's not worth it. At other times you may spend 10 dollars to get one dollar's worth of benefit on the other side and it's worth it, because ultimately you look at the cost in political terms.
Whatever military aircraft we get, our participation in BDM also has to operate within that group or context. What image do we project? How effective are we in creating the sense to anyone who might challenge our sovereignty, who might be tempted to engage in exploration that could be harmful to our interests, who might engage in navigation that would have a negative impact...? Do we project the kind of image of sufficient strength and determination singly in our alliance with NORAD and through our alliance with NATO? That is very important. This is why in the 21st century in particular, symbolism and signals are also essential.