I mentioned that I think the Taliban, first and foremost, have local goals, and I would summarize those goals, perhaps, as follows.
First of all, they want to restore a Pashtun dominance of the government in Kabul, but by dominance I don't mean something that necessarily has to be a frightening image. The Pashtuns have dominated Afghan politics for 300 years and will probably continue to as the single largest group. This does not mean and has not meant that other elements will not play a part in this, or be part of a future government.
There are other non-violent, even fundamentalist, religious groups within Afghanistan that would share many of these social goals. They want more sharia law. They want very traditional social functions. They would want at least separation of men and women in education. Probably many of them would accept female education, but not together, as is the case in Saudi Arabia where you have education of both but separately.
I think the agenda would be mainly a conservative social policy coupled with a strong Pashtun representation within that. There will be jockeying for power within it.
As for the next U.S. administration, it's hard to say. I don't think a republican candidate would be likely to strongly change the American approach. It might be smarter--probably will be smarter--but I think the similar instincts will govern it.
If it were a Democratic administration--and let's assume it would be someone like Barack Obama--it's possible there might be some rethinking of the American global project, but that project up until now, since the end of the Cold War has been essentially an American hegemony. Whether with a smiling face under Bill Clinton or a not smiling face under the Bush administration, it has been essentially a hegemonic vision and has explicitly been called that. These are not my words; these are the words of many of the neo-conservatives: the American century, the new American empire, recognized and supported by many.
I think that idea of abandoning a unipolar world will die hard. It will die slowly, but I think it will die, because it's already de facto dying, as we see in countries like China and Russia, and even in the solution recently of Hezbollah and Lebanon and in talking with Hamas; U.S. policies are simply not being observed by regional players any more.
I'm hopeful that we're going to find a more multilateral world at work, and in that context I think Washington may begin to abandon its aspirations for hegemonic control.