Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, for the opportunity to speak to this group.
As for my background, I'm a professor of agricultural economics from the University of Saskatchewan; I've been there since 1990. Prior to that, I was a crop market analyst with the Saskatchewan Department of Agriculture. I remain involved in the family farm at Indian Head, Saskatchewan, and on March 26, I helped host a grain handling and transportation summit in Saskatoon.
We find ourselves in a very difficult situation in western Canada. After a record crop of all grains in Canada of 90 million tons, we see farm stocks remaining high, we see cash prices are depressed relative to export values, and I think we're losing some of our reputation for being an international supplier of grains. It's very costly for the industry as a whole.
Moves to increase the level of service are vitally important for the industry. One of the things that we see in this, in terms of prices, is a dramatic increase in the difference between the west coast prices and prices in Saskatchewan. Right now there's a basis from Saskatchewan points to Portland of over $200 a ton, which is about $130 a ton more than what you would call regular tariff charges. Similarly, if you look at canola basis, including the crush margins, we see levels about $160 higher than normal.
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like the situation is going to get better any time soon. With the large crop this year, we're going to have large ending stocks going into and adding to the next crop year. If it's a normal crop next year, it'll still leave us with abundant supplies a year later and so on. If we have above normal crops, this could persist for some time to come.
The increase in the basis between port prices and western Canada has created some rents. Some of those rents are going to producers that were fortunate enough to contract forward. Some of them are going to grain companies and processors and some of them are being paid into merge. It's having a profound impact on price levels and in particular, producer incomes for those who were either unable to or did not contract their prices ahead of time.
The one thing I wanted to add to the discussion was the need to address west coast capacity in the long run. If rail movement increases, the west coast capacity quickly becomes the bottleneck. The west coast is by far the cheapest route to the Pacific markets from all areas of western Canada, and from Brandon west it's also the cheapest route to Europe—excluding Churchill, which is small.
The west coast movement, unfortunately, hasn't exceeded 23 million tons historically, and there's a limited capacity to move west even though we have some demand. This demand for west coast capacity is going to increase in the future. Production has been trending up in western Canada because of the reduction in summer fallow, improvement in technologies, and improvement in soil quality because of the zero tillage. At the same time, we've seen a shift in the Pacific versus the Atlantic markets. We've seen a growth in the competition in the Atlantic coming from the Black Sea exporters and from South America. At the same time, we've seen it grow with an Asian demand. Our markets are west and if we can't ship west, we have to ship east all the way through to Panama or at least into a market where prices are depressed and that creates a real cost for western Canadian producers.
These are just back of the envelope calculations, but my calculations are that if we could provide sufficient west coast capacity, we could have about $800 million in transport savings if we include all the basis all the way to the Atlantic and around, which is a lot and would have a profound long-term impact on reducing that basis. There are large potential benefits worth exploring.
In terms of policy to increase capacity, thinking about both of those issues, in terms of the revenue cap, I think it's important to improve it if we can.
One would be to do a costing review, which I think has been called for for a while.
Second, I would like to propose the notion of using a premium in the revenue cap during the three winter months. These are the months when the railways face higher costs, and to me it makes sense that the railways would in fact get, if you like, some degree of premium during those months within the formula to reflect those higher marginal costs. We need effective rail service requirements within that revenue cap and a mechanism to do that.
There's some need to re-establish some form of a grain transport authority, I believe—a book order or order-book process. If sellers want to place orders and they're filled, that works well when we don't have a capacity constraint, but once the system becomes backed up—several weeks in the case of this year—it becomes very difficult as to which orders are going to be filled first, and it becomes arbitrary decisions and not very well managed within the current mechanics. We need someone to sort that out.
I also think that we need some mechanism to share information across companies. They're probably not willing to share it with each other, but they might be able to share that with third parties so we make sure the shipments that have the highest priorities or are the most important are actually made, rather than just some arbitrary rules.
Third, we need much better information planning and logistics. I think we need a much better public forecasting system in western Canada. We should have bi-weekly forecasts by professional agrologists throughout the summer into the harvest period so we don't miss the mark by tens of millions of tonnes in the end.
I worry a little bit in Bill C-30 about setting the transport service levels at July 1. I think this is far too soon. At that point, we don't know whether we're going to have a devastating frost or we're going to above-average yields. It's just simply too early in the crop year, and having firm rules or a firm date fixed in the legislation could be a problem for planning. I think we need more flexibility and responsiveness instead of an early date.
I think we need better price reporting, and I would also argue that a west gate coast grain exchange would be very useful in providing more information. Part of it is to increase the physical capacity in the system at key bottlenecks. That includes existing terminals, new terminals, containerized systems, enhancing the rail, and obviously, some system-wide planning incentives and public incentives would help do that.
We need to increase competition in the system from end to end of the supply chain. This includes increased competition at the port terminals. That means perhaps new facilities and new players. I would also argue a “for sale” at Prince Rupert to a single buyer would inherently put another player in the system and make that facility more fully utilized.
On rail, I think the increased interswitching provisions are welcome. I'm not sure how they work in the legislation, but they're certainly welcome. I think the idea of a greater use of short lines is important as well. I think short lines have more surge capacity.
Finally, in terms of elevation and rail capacity, we need more refinements there, but maintaining producer cars may be important for the competition.