Right. The perception of Canada from places like the U.K. and Washington is that Canada is going to boom under a warming climate because we're a cold country. If you look in more detail....
In fact, we've collaborated with agricultural researchers at the University of Saskatchewan and the University of Guelph. They have these models that simulate the production of various crops. We give them data from climate models. We give them a climate scenario, and they apply it to their crop model. The results are much higher yields in the future—in some cases, yields that are two to three times higher—just based on an increase in temperature and a longer growing season.
However, what they don't factor in is, as you said, the impacts of the pests, the pathogens, the disease vectors, and they don't necessarily factor in the impact of extremes. When they factor in the variability of the future climate, they discover that yes, on average, yields are higher, but they can be very high or very low from year to year. The message we give to agricultural producers is that in the future you could have very high yields, but you could also have no yield at all. If you want to capitalize on a warmer climate, be prepared to have wildly fluctuating yields from year to year.