Thank you, Mr. Chairman and the committee, for the invitation to participate in today's meeting.
I'm Mark Hemmes, the president of Quorum Corporation, based in Edmonton. Quorum has been responsible for monitoring the Canadian prairie grain handling and transportation system on behalf of Transport Canada and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada since June 2001.
You all have my notes, I believe. I sent them in a couple of days ago, so I'm not going to try to read the whole thing to you.
As my expertise and knowledge centre on the logistics and supply chain of the Canadian grain industry, my comments today are going to be focused on how global food insecurity can and cannot be aided by the Canadian industry.
Global food insecurity has been a concern for many over the past number of years as demand grows with increased population and higher standards of living, while production and supply fluctuate with regional weather conditions and supply chain disruptions, be they weather- or human-caused. The Russian invasion of Ukraine served to exacerbate this situation. As such, my comments will cover both the short-term and the long-term challenges that we face.
In the short term, not unlike the impact the pandemic had on the entirety of the global supply chain, the Russian invasion of Ukraine served to upset an already tenuous balance of supply and demand for grain and grain products globally. Using wheat production and exports as an example, the three-year average of global production was 752 million metric tonnes, while the global export market averaged about 177 million metric tonnes. Four countries made up over half of the global export supply—Ukraine, Russia, the United States and Canada, with Ukraine and Russia providing about 31% of that supply. Most of those exports flow from Black Sea port origins and supply the demand of Europe, the Middle East and North Africa.
General industry opinion suggests that supply from that region is going to be reduced by half, if not more, for the duration of the war and for a period after its conclusion. In short, the global market is going to be looking for about 26 million metric tonnes of wheat, which has been lost due to the impacts of the war.
Western Canadian wheat and durum production has averaged 28.9 million metric tonnes annually over the last five years, with an average of three and a half million metric tonnes carried over. Domestically, we consume about six million metric tonnes annually, and the remainder, anything over and above this that we grow, goes into the export markets. That's about 26 million metric tonnes. There is a graph in the paper I sent you that pretty much displays how that kind of balance happens.
Canadian grain companies and grain exporters have long-standing commitments to established markets globally, many of which are second and third world countries. While the current year's western Canadian production volumes have returned to a level that equals the five-year average, the total available to supplement the loss of supply due to the impact of the war is very minimal.
Compounding this are the logistical challenges of supplying the regions that will be most impacted by the shortfall in supply—meaning the Middle East and North Africa. The logical routes would be through Thunder Bay and the seaway or eastern Canadian ports.
While the port of Thunder Bay has more than adequate terminal capacity, it would require increased seaway capacity, either through increased laker vessels or through an increase in seaway-sized ocean-going vessels. This would increase the cost of movement as compared to the existing routing, which normally goes through the west coast ports.
A direct rail movement to eastern Canadian ports would require additional rail capacity in terms of railcars and resources, adding to an already constrained system. These constraints would need to be considered if we are going to think about routing the supply to the affected regional areas.
In the longer term, though, Canadian grain production has enjoyed an annual increase averaging about 3% due to improved agronomics, while our domestic consumption has remained relatively constant. This allows for the potential in the future of increased exports of Canadian grain and grain products that will serve to help in the alleviation of global food insecurity.
To serve that growth, grain companies in Canada have invested significantly in expanded capacity in their country elevator networks and the facilities at both western and eastern Canadian ports. The challenge that is faced by all the grain exporters, though, is getting access to the ports through the rail networks, as Dave has already mentioned.
This committee has probably heard in previous meetings on this and other topics that grain exporters base their sales and marketing plans primarily on what rail capacity they think they can obtain. The railway grain plans that are issued each August for the upcoming grain year do not reflect the level of increased production experienced already. As such, access to rail capacity is and has long been a serious concern for all grain exporters, and it will continue to be in the future if the current conditions continue—