Thank you, sir, and thank you, Ken.
A short description of our current collective agreement with General Motors, reached yesterday, has been distributed to the committee in both languages.
What I'd like to do is just very quickly provide some additional detail on our reading of some of the economic context of the crisis in the auto industry, our recent bargaining, and the government's decisions in moving ahead. I will table three reports with the clerk for future distribution to the committee, in time for your study.
First of all, I would like to emphasize that one of Canada's greatest assets moving forward is our sustained and visible productivity advantage. The auto sector is one of the few industries where Canada is more productive on a consistent basis than the United States. The most recent data indicate that Canada has about an 11% labour productivity advantage in auto assembly versus the United States and a 35% advantage relative to Mexico. That advantage has been there consistently over the last decade; in fact, our productivity advantage relative to the U.S. has grown slightly in recent years. I think it reflects the emphasis of all Canadian participants, including the companies and the union, on modern technology and investment in new capital equipment, the high performance work practices, and also the health and wellness of the workers. That's an important part of what makes a productive workforce.
So I leave that for your consideration. The productivity advantage is there, and we'd like to make even more of it with more investment in our facilities.
My second point is about the economic importance of the auto sector to the broader economy. This is not just about helping the auto producers, and it's certainly not about helping the auto workers—as if we needed some kind of charity. This is about us as a country deciding that we need to preserve this vital part of our economic base.
I will table the study from the Centre for Spatial Economics in Ontario, which analyzes the spinoff impacts of the auto industry. It indicates that if the major North American auto producers were to fail, the ultimate toll, counting those spinoff jobs in Canada, would be 600,000 lost jobs, only about 25,000 of which would be the direct CAW members. Those are a lot of other non-CAW members whose future depends on this industry being here.
Substantial reductions in GDP would occur, of about $65 billion, or 4.4%. That's enough to take a recession, which we're already grappling with, and make it look a lot like a depression.
The data on the fiscal impact of the crisis in the auto industry are interesting. If the North American producers were to disappear, there would be a net negative fiscal impact of $13 billion a year on the federal government, which is substantial. I know there are a lot of folks who call themselves the representatives of the taxpayers out there, who complain about the government supporting the auto industry. If I really cared about taxpayers, I would be awfully worried about that $13 billion hole in the federal government's budget that would suddenly appear, and how we would fill it.
Finally, we will table additional information about the relationship between international trade and the industry's current problems and its future recovery. Our industry in Canada is totally dependent on foreign investment—of course, all of the auto assemblers are foreign owned—and on exports for its existence. That is something we celebrate. But we have to look at the context in which our international trade and investment relationships take place, and that context has shifted from a very strong positive to a very strong negative for our industry over the last decade. In 1999, Canada enjoyed a $15 billion annual surplus in automotive products and trade with the rest of the world. Last year that converted to a $14 billion deficit. So we've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory and lost what was once a bright spot in our international relations. It's now become a large and growing net drain.
The deficit reflects both a decline in our exports—mostly to the U.S.—and an increase in our imports, particularly from offshore. In fact, in 2008, for the first time in decades, Canada has experienced an automotive trade deficit within North America. We still have a small surplus with the United States, but that is now more than offset by a deficit with Mexico. That, I think, is both a cause and a consequence of the crisis in our industry and the loss of our jobs.
We think it will be interesting, given the restructuring in the U.S. and a parallel restructuring here in Canada, how that will affect the shape and the location of the North American industry. I think we face both a risk and an opportunity here. Obviously the Americans are putting money into their industry, and they are going to tie that to American investments, American supply, and American content.
Canadian governments will do the same thing, and we obviously encourage you to maximize the footprint commitments that will be made as a quid pro quo, if you like, for providing assistance to the industry. I would like to see us and the Americans work jointly around something that could end up looking like a new North American auto pact, where the governments in both countries will provide assistance to the industries in return for proportional commitments that would strengthen the North American industry.
We can't draw a line between us and the Americans--the industry is completely integrated--so it makes no sense to do it separately. If we did that, combined with some accountability from non-North American jurisdictions in terms of if they're going to continue to export here, they have to open up their markets to take products back from here or else they have to expand their own investments in North America, that could end up being a positive.
So I'd like to emphasize, as the industry recovers, that the international trade portion of it, that dimension of it, has to be part of the picture. This is something the Canadian Automotive Partnership Council and other stakeholders have examined, and I think it has to be on our agenda as well.
Thank you very much, and we look forward to your questions and comments now, sir.