Thank you very much for inviting me to appear before you.
At your request, I'll focus most of my specific remarks on the aspects of the bill that deal with dangerous offenders. But I will place those specific remarks in the context of the concerns that I have with the bill as a whole.
I'm a criminologist, and for the last 35 years have carried out research on a number of different aspects of the justice system, most notably, in this context, on sentencing, imprisonment policies, and public attitudes concerning the criminal justice system. More recently I've been examining the pretrial detention process here in Ontario.
I would like to start, however, by explaining how I approached my analysis of the various aspects of Bill C-2. My starting point is not different from what I expect to be that of everyone in this room. I would like to be able to support policies that would be effective in reducing crime, in particular violent crime, in our communities. The rate of violent crime is, at the moment, relatively stable, which provides, I think, an ideal time for developing rational and effective approaches to crime.
The second general principle that guides my thinking on some aspects of this bill is that sentences should be proportionate to the seriousness of the offence and the offender's responsibility for that offence. Most of the research that I have seen on public attitudes concerning sentencing would suggest that my views on this issue are widely held. I don't expect that many of you would argue against proportionate sentences.
It is in the context of these two concerns--effectively addressing violence in our society and handing down punishments that are proportionate to the seriousness of the crime--that I examine Bill C-2. It largely fails to address crime effectively and fails to ensure that sentences are proportionate to the harm that's done.
The title of the proposed act, the Tackling Violent Crime Act, makes a statement and a promise. The minister referred to the desire to tackle crime and make our communities safer as the primary justification for the bill. Similarly, the preamble of the bill talks about “enacting comprehensive laws to combat violent crime and to protect Canadians”. Although the preamble suggests that the laws would ensure that violent offenders are kept in prison, it is notable that there is not a reference to fair and proportionate sentences that focus on the harm, on what the offenders have done.
Let me give some examples of provisions in this act that have little to do with protecting us from violent crime. The mandatory minimum penalties for firearms offences have been discussed extensively. I won't spend much time talking about them here. But perhaps the most patently absurd mandatory minimum sentence provision in this act is related to the third impaired driving offence, moving it from a minimum of 90 days to 120 days. Aside from the added but minor incoherence that this provision injects into the overall sentencing structure of the Criminal Code, this provision will do nothing to reduce the likelihood of impaired driving. The suggestion that there is some group of people who would be deterred by a 120-day sentence but not by a 90-day sentence is certainly something that most people would question. More importantly, as long as you--you as the Parliament of Canada--suggest ineffective solutions, the motivation to do something effective is blunted.
Similarly, the bill has provisions creating reverse onus provisions at bail hearings for certain firearms offences. These provisions imply that crown attorneys are either ineffective or unmotivated when faced with a case involving an offender with a serious offence involving firearms. The proposal ignores the fact that in the context of stable or falling violent crime rates, the number of people detained in provincial institutions now awaiting trial rivals--and in some provinces, like Ontario, dramatically exceeds--the number of people who are serving sentences. There's no systematic evidence that I've been able to find that suggests that these aspects of our laws need such change.
If provisions such as these are merely ineffective, what's the concern? I remind you of my starting point. We have a relatively stable rate of violent crime at the moment. By advocating provisions like those contained in the bill, you successfully avoid anything the Government of Canada might do that would be effective in reducing violent crime in Canada.
Bills such as this one imply that the solution to serious crime in Canada lies in small changes in the criminal law. In effect, the message you give is that you have addressed the violent crime problem. In fact, there's almost nothing in this bill that will have any impact on violent crime. So not only are you distracting yourselves from changes that will have long-term positive impacts on our society, but you are doing things that will use resources that could be better spent on measures that would address crime.
Second, as I have suggested, you are at best ignoring the principle of proportionality in sentences. The changes in the dangerous offender provisions in the Criminal Code, then, can be seen in this context: as provisions that, by definition, move us away from sentencing offenders for the wrongs they have committed, and that suggest to Canadians that the criminal justice system is capable of doing something that it cannot do with any degree of accuracy--identifying those who might, in the future, commit serious acts.
I'll start with the problem of prediction, a central feature of this legislation. The legislation is designed to incapacitate people who are seen as dangerous to our communities for periods of time that are longer than what they deserve given their offences. Most of those who have been designated as dangerous offenders would have been given very long sentences on the basis of proportionality. Simply put, the proposal is that more people be sentenced not for what they have done but for what we think they might do in the future. The changes you are considering might be seen as an attempt to take some of the worst penitentiary inmates and try to ensure that they would be designated as dangerous offenders because they might offend in the future.
Let's look at our ability to predict future offending. One study of penitentiary inmates divided those being released into five groups according to their measured risk. The worst of these groups, about 22% of them, were followed for a period of three years after they were released, and about half of them did not end up back in federal custody within that three-year period. Said differently, a prediction model, which was the best Correctional Service of Canada could come up with, such as the dangerous offender provisions would have made the wrong decisions for most of these worst-off offenders.
You might be saying to yourself, so what? They've done something bad, and under the proposed set of amendments, they would have to do bad things three times before they would be presumptively considered to be dangerous offenders. The problem with the provisions is that they imply that this group of offenders is responsible for a substantial portion of crime. This, however, turns out to be a myth. Violent crime is unfortunately much more widely distributed than most people think.
When you look at these offenders, what you find is that the worst offenders in our system, those who are released from penitentiary on statutory release, are responsible for a minuscule amount of crime. But by addressing the problem of violence in our society as you have in this bill, you keep suggesting repeatedly in this bill that these kinds of changes, these relatively small changes, will have a large impact. We know that they won't, and unfortunately the suggestion that's being made is that they will.
So let's go back and look at the bill. It states, of course, that for a person who's committed a primary designated offence for which it would be appropriate to serve a two-year sentence, the dangerous offender status can be presumed unless the contrary is proved on the balance of probabilities. Implicitly then, it makes a prediction about this offender's future, a prediction that we know is seriously flawed. What this means, of course, is that the person who has two previous convictions of assault causing bodily harm or robbery, as was suggested, that gave him a penitentiary sentence in large part because of an extensive record for perhaps property crimes is in jeopardy of dangerous offender designation. A third fight or minor robbery in which someone is hurt puts him in the category of being a presumptive dangerous offender. Given what he has been convicted of, we now tell him that he must prove that the presumption has not been met.
My concern is twofold. First, given that the offender has just been convicted of a serious violent offence, how exactly will he or she prove to the court on the balance of probabilities that he or she is not dangerous? Stated differently, it's a presumption that effectively cannot be successfully rebutted. And of course this offender is facing an indefinite sentence that will be first reviewed in seven years, a sentence that would be almost certainly, in the case I've just described, not proportionate to the offence itself. In addition, once again, it implies that this is going to keep us safe from dangerous people.
In terms of the benefits of incapacitation, we have to remember that the dangerous offender provisions only protect us to the extent that a person who would normally have received the regular sentence now is incarcerated for longer. But our hypothetical offender will of course be in penitentiary for quite a few additional years. Is this the best we can do in order to reduce violence in our community?