Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
I've been asked to talk about climate change. I think we should note last week's publication of the IPCC's fourth report on climate change. It's clear that the scientists' message, in the form of this fourth IPCC report, is a stronger message than that of the 2001 report, the findings of which were already very significant with regard to human responsibility.
We now have a higher degree of certainty, a consensus that has never previously been seen and greater certainty. We're starting to be able to make regional predictions, across Canada in particular. We must note the work of the Ouranos Consortium and Prof. René Laprise of the Université du Québec à Montréal, who is a member of the IPCC and has provided an excellent forecast of what's awaiting us using the Canadian regional forecasts model.
The climate inertia factors have been much more clearly characterized. The measurements are more accurate, in particular for past climates. We have a better understanding of the mechanisms behind the climate changes we're witnessing. We have new research questions, and scientists are expressing a greater sense of urgency and requesting that concrete measures be taken.
In its fourth report, the IPCC is telling us, increasingly clearly, that human beings are responsible and that the developed countries, such as Canada, which has various sectors that produce greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for this increase. The concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has never been this high in 650,000 years, and the temperatures we're now experiencing are higher than in the past 1,300 years at least.
In addition, the rate of warming is partly masked by the effect of aerosols, and the warming observed from 1990 to 2005 was faster than the models predicted. We therefore have a high degree of scientific confidence in our forecasts. According to those forecasts, over the next two decades, there will be an increase equivalent to half of that observed during the 20th century, which makes the concerns of the previous speaker all the more critical. Temperatures are not rising evenly everywhere. They are rising twice as quickly in northern Canada, which is a major cause for concern. Similarly, the sea levels are rising. We are measuring the rise much more accurately and we realize that levels have risen in recent decades.
Let's talk about the issue of melting ice. The North is particularly important for Canada. The fact that the icefloes are melting could mean that the Arctic Ocean might be ice-free in summer as early as 2035. A rise in extreme temperatures is also forecast.
It must be understood that climate science can only provide warnings. Solutions must come from players at various levels. Governments must adopt more restrictive ground rules so that people can play by those rules. Moreover, industry is requesting that ground rules be established on a fairly long time horizon so it can justify the investment and decisions that have to be made today.
Industrial interests must introduce new technologies and new processes. They must be able to reduce their emissions by including the cost of carbon in their products so that cost is internalized.
Citizens, who ultimately make consumption decisions, must be informed, change their behaviour as consumers and electors and take preventive action. Climate change will affect citizens' health and safety in a very uneven and unpredictable way.
Since it ratified the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, Canada has not taken the necessary measures to discharge its responsibilities. The challenge for this planet between now and 2050 is to reduce annual CO2 emissions by 25 billion tonnes. Canada's effort will probably be in the order of 500 million tonnes a year. We have already exceeded our objective set at the time Kyoto was signed by 270 million tonnes. We are therefore lagging very far behind, and those are the figures for 2004 emissions. I can guarantee you with more than 90% certainty, that, in 2008, we will be at least 300 million tonnes above the objective set. And we still don't have clear ground rules! So we'll have to pick up the pace.
Consequently, Bill C-30 will have to address the causes of air pollution rather than merely its effects. In principle, in order to pick up the pace, we'll have to establish firm provincial targets, not just a pan-Canadian objective. It must be recognized that sources are different and the efficiency of measures is different as well. A wind farm in Quebec won't reduce greenhouse gases; a wind farm in New Brunswick might do it; a wind farm in Alberta will have a much greater impact on carbon intensity reduction than if it's installed in Ontario. We also have to be able to put a national carbon market in place as soon as possible, with a Canadian ceiling, not a reduction in carbon intensity. I'll be able to answer questions on carbon intensity later on.
We will have to levy a carbon tax that will be applicable to exports as well, as Norway has done, so that we can have revenue to purchase reductions in the international market and not to put our industries and population at a disadvantage. Currently, Canada should reduce its emissions by 10 tonnes per person in order to achieve its Kyoto objectives, which is a burden that we can't impose on Canadians in the current state of affairs.
A major research and technological development effort must also be funded, and funding must be guaranteed for at least 10 years and must be renewable. The horizon of the challenges facing us is 2050. The initial reductions are easy to achieve, but the ones that will come after that will demand a very great scientific and technological effort.
To send a very clear signal to consumers and citizens, automobile consumption should also be taxed progressively, because automobiles are over-equipment with an economic life of at least 10 years. Consequently, voluntary measures put in place by the previous government, and extended by the present government, together with the automotive industry, will not have any effect on emissions.
Disclosure of emissions in automotive advertising must also be made mandatory so that citizens are informed. I would even go as far as to say that the production of greenhouse gas emissions should appear in automobile sales contracts. We should also consider that we must stimulate field-based initiatives, but field-based initiatives that are not just festive. They must be documented and accounted for.
Thank you.