Thank you for inviting me to appear as a witness at this hearing on Canada-China relations. As an observer of Chinese foreign and security policy for more than 40 years, I'm pleased to provide my assessment of China's evolving global role.
China's involvement in the world is a very complicated picture. Several of your prior witnesses have related examples of China's positive impact, including the creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and its contributions to UN peacekeeping operations. However, it is also important to examine examples of its negative impact and fully appreciate China's intentions to modify the international system in ways that are detrimental to democracies.
When Chinese officials claim they seek to uphold the international system, it's important to understand that they have a different definition of the international system from western liberal democracies. Beijing supports global institutions but rejects liberal norms and values. It opposes the network of U.S. alliances established after World War II that underpins the international system.
Xi Jinping has called for China not only to participate in but also to lead global governance reform. In various forums, including key UN agencies, China is seeking to reframe prevailing norms and to introduce its own concepts. Beijing has long expressed dissatisfaction with the democratic governance system, but it has only been in recent years that it has begun to push for its own alternative vision. China's more assertive stance is a result of both its assessment that the international balance of power is shifting in China's favour, with the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis, and also the opportunities, frankly, presented by the Trump administration's withdrawal from several key multilateral organizations.
In the UN, China is introducing its own rules and norms. In the Human Rights Council, Beijing is promoting orthodox interpretations of national sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs that weaken widely accepted international norms of human rights, transparency and accountability. In areas where international law is still evolving, China has been especially active. Alongside Russia, China has pushed its version of Internet governance that emphasizes state sovereignty and territoriality in the digital space. Other examples include outer space, the deep sea and the polar regions. In the Arctic, China has labelled itself a near-Arctic state, with the goal of inserting itself into international debates over Arctic governance.
Xi Jinping has taken measures to operationalize China's long-standing positions that U.S. alliances are Cold War relics that should be eliminated. In 2014, Xi put forward his vision for an Asia free of alliances and the military presence of the United States. In the South China Sea, through which an estimated $3.4 trillion in trade passes annually, China is aggressively pushing to oust foreign players. In its negotiations with the members of ASEAN on a code of conduct, Beijing proposed that the parties prohibit holding military exercises with countries outside Southeast Asia and bar co-operation with energy companies from outside the region.
Abroad, China is actively promoting its development model. At the 19th party congress in October 2017, Xi Jinping explicitly touted China's experience, stating that China's miracle of rapid economic growth and long-term social stability “offers a new option for other countries and nations who want to speed up their development while preserving their independence”. This unprecedented push is in part to secure the position of the Chinese Communist Party at home, but it's also intended to bolster the legitimacy of authoritarian political systems worldwide and weaken the appeal of democracy.
When it comes to international rules, China's compliance is selective, and its observance of law is weakest in the maritime realm, in China's near seas, where it prioritizes safeguarding China's sovereignty, security and development interests. Beijing rejected the July 2016 findings of an UNCLOS arbitral tribunal, which ruled that China's nine-dash line is invalid as a claim to resource rights.
China's intimidation of Taiwan, a democracy where over 23 million people reside, has reached new heights in recent years. China's military exercises have become increasingly provocative and dangerous, with large numbers of fighters, bombers and reconnaissance aircraft crossing the centre line of the Taiwan Strait. Beijing has poached seven of Taipei's diplomatic partners since 2016, leaving the island with only 15 countries that recognize it. Countries as well as companies that are seen as challenging Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan are issued stern warnings and threatened with punishment.
Canada is among the countries, of course, that have been targeted for harming Chinese interests and offending Chinese sensibilities. The arrest of Canadian citizens and the ban on imports of Canadian canola oil and other agricultural products are just the latest examples of Chinese economic coercion aimed at punishing countries that harm Chinese interests.
The list of target countries is long: Norway, for granting the Nobel Peace Prize to Chinese dissident Liu Xiaobo; Japan, for arresting a Chinese ship captain after he rammed a Japanese Coast Guard vessel in disputed waters; the Philippines, for confronting Chinese fishermen operating in Scarborough Shoal; and on and on, as well as South Korea for THAAD, etc.
China does not respect rule of law. lt does not share liberal democratic values, and it does not protect human rights. It is seeking to alter the international system in ways that would be favourable to China and detrimental to western interests. China's tool of domestic governance, its detention of over one million Uighurs, its censorship of expression, and its social credit system should not be a model for the rest of the world.
Although l'm not a Canadian citizen, l'd like to offer a few suggestions for Canada to consider in its policy going forward.
First, establish priorities in your relations with China. Identify what Canada must insist on and what it will not tolerate. Be firm and consistent. A precondition for the resumption of normal bilateral ties should be the release of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. Beijing ultimately respects countries that stand up for their interests. Canada's priorities and principles in its relations with China could be set out in a strategy paper similar to that issued by Sweden or embedded in a broader foreign policy white paper as Australia has done.
Second, where possible, pursue a collective response. Seek to work with like-minded countries to protect shared interests. Japan, along with the U.S. and the European Union, filed a WTO case against Chinese actions to drastically reduce rare earth exports in 2010, and the challengers won in 2014. I think Canada, the U.S. and other like-minded countries should establish a multilateral reserve fund to compensate any of the fund's members for costs imposed by Chinese economic coercion. The fund should be capitalized by its members as well as by private sector firms that might be affected by coercion.
Third and finally, identify sources of leverage and use them. Although Canada is a middle power, not a superpower, it still has ways in which it can get China's attention. Pulling out of China's AIIB, which I know some politicians have advocated for, would not significantly affect the bank's lending capacity, of course, but it would deal a blow to China's reputation. Canada should also consider invoking the Magnitsky Law against China, which allows the government to block visas for officials and freeze or seize their assets in Canada.
Calling out China for its human rights abuses in Xinjiang would be consistent with Canada's long-standing support for human rights and freedom, and doing so might encourage countries to take similar measures.
Thank you again for inviting me to testify before the special committee.