Given the Chinese reaction to the election, I would say it's destabilizing. They were hoping for a different outcome.
Does that mean that they're going to do what they have threatened to do? A lot of that depends on how the new leadership in Taiwan handles and manages its relationship with China, as well as on the deterrent messages that the United States and its western partners send to China.
There are some strategic experts who say that we should get ready, given what's going on in the world, for a March or April military offensive that the Chinese will launch against Taiwan, because they've simply had enough. I am somewhat skeptical of that.
However, the other factor you have to put into the mix is the risk of miscalculation, what is sometimes referred to as the “inadvertent escalation”. It could be an incident at sea. There have been quite a few where American forces or the forces of their allies get into a shooting match with a Chinese vessel. A ship gets sunk, and then what do you do?
If there is a breakdown in communications, we've seen that scenario in 1914 with the mobilization and countermobilization of forces in a war that nobody really wanted. I don't think anybody wants—and that includes the Chinese, by the way—to get into a war with the United States over Taiwan. They have simply just too much invested in the global economy and their own prosperity to do that, but if they feel the Americans are distracted, looking the other way, they may be opportunistic. As I said, there could also be inadvertent actions resulting from a loss of control over military forces that get you into a shooting war.