Thank you for quoting my book on the Indo-Pacific. I am confident there will be a massive increase in sales in Canada following this evening's proceedings.
Quite seriously, what I attempted to do in that book and what I continue to try to do through my work is to identify the commonalities of Indo-Pacific visions and then encourage our very diverse countries to work together as much as we can.
To say that the Indo-Pacific strategic idea is about avoiding both capitulation and conflict is not to say that if there were a conflict we should back down. It is to say that we want to do everything we can to achieve strategic equilibrium, as the Australian foreign minister calls it, to maintain peace and stability, but deterrence is part of that picture. Some countries are very serious in that regard. I think Australia is. I think Japan is, for example, and the United States unquestionably is, even, I think, under potentially a Trump administration.
Southeast Asia is obviously much more complex and problematic. Vietnam will attempt to deter China in its own way, but will not try to join with others in collective deterrence. The Philippines—I think a good news story—has become much closer to its U.S. ally in recent years and is even getting more serious about its own capabilities, so I think the Philippines sits in that camp of strategic equilibrium that Australia is pursuing. The Republic of Korea, again, I think is moving in the right direction.
There's some progress, but we are a long way from a uniform response. To be honest, I don't think we really strictly expect that. As long as we can ensure that major countries in southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia, are not effectively co-opted by China in a future conflict or crisis, that is probably enough, and incidentally remind our friends in southeast Asia that a conflict will touch them immediately. For example, a Taiwan conflict would immediately endanger the lives of hundreds of thousands of Indonesian nationals who are resident in Taiwan.
Reminding countries that you cannot avoid the situation, that you cannot sit on the fence and that you have to protect your interests is a really important part of the diplomatic challenge for Australia and indeed for Canada.