Thank you for your question.
I think the risk lies in engaging in purely binary reasoning, in connection with the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine, and thinking that the only possible option in the strait is either a form of precarious peace or a large-scale invasion by China.
China's objective is to take control of Taiwan, which, we must recall, is a territory that has never been part of the People's Republic of China since it was established in 1949. Obviously, its objective is to take control of that territory without having to resort to force. Beijing's objective is therefore to put pressure on Taiwanese society, to try to demoralize the population and make it lose confidence in its government, and to weaken it in order to potentially take control of the island.
A large-scale military operation would be China's last resort situation, and is obviously not the preferred scenario. With that said, that scenario cannot be ruled out. Other military scenarios to put pressure on Taiwan also cannot be ruled out.
As I very quickly alluded to, questions arise, for example, regarding a violation of Taiwan's airspace by Chinese fighter jets. So far, that has not happened. It might be the question of taking control of the islands of Matsu and Jinmen, which are located only a few kilometres off the Chinese coast and are extremely difficult for Taiwan to defend. The question might arise in relation to large-scale military exercises that might, this time, amount to a partial blockade of the island. All these military scenarios would be aimed not at invading the island, necessarily, but at bringing enormous pressure to bear on the island to try, perhaps, through a negotiated political option put forward by Beijing, to take control of the island.
The situation is therefore not a binary one between precarious peace and an invasion, and China has all the military options available to it to try once again to pressure and isolate Taiwan on the international scene.