Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I'd like to express our appreciation for this invitation to share our industry's perspective on the buy America program.
Critical materials, secure supply chains, strategic needs for continental defence, green recovery and transport electrification: Our metal, produced responsibly, with the lowest carbon footprint in the world, is at the forefront of solutions to the problems of today and tomorrow.
The U.S. market, to which nearly 80% of our aluminum is exported, is one of the major import markets in the world. Currently, smelters in the U.S. produce about one million tonnes annually, while the demand for primary metal is about 4.5 million tonnes annually. By 2030, that demand is expected to grow to about seven million tonnes annually, while forecasts for primary production stall at about a million tonnes. This will increase the U.S. supply gap and create more dependence on imports of primary metal. The 2.2 million tonnes that we ship each year will continue to find buyers, despite the buy America policy.
We believe, however, that responsibly produced low-carbon aluminum should be the preferred choice in a green recovery. Indeed, a green recovery of the economy following the pandemic must be done by using responsibly produced materials and solutions, with a low-carbon footprint as much as possible. Otherwise, we'll find ourselves exporting jobs in return for carbon imports.
For example, our competition in the U.S. market comes mainly from the Middle East, Russia and India. We believe that it's not in the interests of either the U.S. or Canada to anchor stimulus programs on supply chains from politically unstable regions of the world and with a carbon footprint disproportionately larger than ours. Canada's less than two tonnes of CO2 per tonne of aluminum draws the line easily, compared to 7.5 in the Middle East and as much as 17 in China.
While the challenges of energy, environmental protection and the fight against climate change are at the heart of the American recovery plan, Canada must show the U.S. the contribution they can make as an allied country by supplying eco-responsible materials and solutions, while setting an example through its own procurement policies.
We must grow back the integrated North American economy together, through investing in technology and partnering in the adoption of new green technologies. The signal must come through government procurement. We must be consistent with our reduction targets and leverage the recovery efforts and public spending to redirect the economy in the right direction.
Beyond its traditional manufacturing base, the industry is poised to be an even more critical source of material for a range of future uses in a low-carbon world.
In transport, because aluminum is lightweight, strong and corrosion resistant, it's used in aircraft manufacturing. It allows planes to be more fuel efficient and to carry more weight safely. NASA's Orion spacecraft structures are made from an aluminum-lithium alloy, as will be Orion's next generation multi-purpose crew vehicles.
Electric-powered vehicles need to be lightweight. By 2030, combustion cars are expected to be no more than 5% of the new vehicle market. Already today, aluminum in vehicles has reduced the carbon footprint by 20%.
In renewables, the metal is a key material in a wide range of renewable energy systems, all the way from solar thermal collectors and power plants to wind turbines and photovoltaic systems.
The U.S. and Canada, amongst other governments, are working independently and together to ensure access to a reliable future supply of critical materials. This is a direct response to China's increasingly dominant state-funded presence in supply chains for critical minerals that are key to strategic industries such as defence, aerospace and communications.
Again, aluminum is one such material. Further, the processing of bauxite into the aluminum required for aluminum production generates residual minerals, including magnesium and silicon dioxide, as well as titanium oxide and gallium nitride. Both are on the list of critical minerals as established by the U.S. and Canada.
While we fully recognize the importance of economic recovery plans here and in the U.S., that opportunity is at risk from less sustainable sources of supply driven by very high levels of state support, particularly in China. The consequences of not addressing international market distortion should be clear.
Subsidized aluminum from high CO2-emitting production systems will increasingly spill over into national and international markets, replacing well-paid jobs in often rural areas with higher CO2 emissions abroad, eroding robust industrial ecosystems and driving out sustainable domestic capacity and resilient supply chains in the U.S. and Canada.
In closing, Mr. Chair, I would like to remind you that the real issue we all share is that of Chinese domination and its effect on our markets. This hyper-subsidized production, as demonstrated by the OECD, is crushing our markets and decimating large industrial sectors such as aluminum, magnesium, semi-conductors and many others.
We do have an enabling framework, CUSMA, and a context that should rally us to North American recovery. With companies and well-paid middle-class workers whose footprint extends on both sides of our borders all facing the same unfair competition—China—now more than ever allied countries with integrated economies, such as Canada and the U.S., must work together to rebuild their economies with resilient, competitive and sustainable continental strategic supply chains.
Thank you.