That’s the strategic voting calculation.
Mr. Deltell said earlier that the most popular sport in the world is soccer. Why is that? Because soccer is the sport where chance plays the greatest role. There are a number of examples where outsiders or third-division teams have beaten national teams.
When you know the results in advance, there is less temptation to get up in the morning to go and vote. When the member in our constituency has been the same for four elections and he is not a candidate in the party of our choice, we are perhaps less tempted to go and vote.
Not being too sure about what is going to happen is a factor too. The 1995 referendum is a classic case, as is the Brexit in England. No one knew what the result would be. The power of a vote was not much greater than normal, but, from a psychological point of view, it meant a lot. Not knowing what the result will be counts a great deal.
I have seen purely proportional elections in Spain, and they are pretty dry. The difference between the result of the last opinion poll and the result of the election is minimal, a few percentage points. I am not sure that more people would go and vote if we moved to a voting system like that.
People are very interested in what is happening locally. Elections are also one thing among many. People do not think about politics all the time. People do not naturally participate in parliamentary committees or municipal council meetings. Either they do not have the time or they tell themselves that nothing is going to change. But I myself have done it several times. This is my fifth or sixth consultation, and I have always felt that I have made a contribution.