Electoral Reform Committee on July 26th, 2016

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

Thank you.

Mr. Kenney.

[Jason Kenney, Conservative, Calgary Midnapore, AB]

Thanks very much.

I gather that in the last two elections to the Dáil, Sinn Fein has done relatively well, much better than its historic levels. Sinn Fein currently has, if I'm not mistaken, about 19 seats in the Dáil. Is that right?

[Michael Gallagher]

It has twenty-three, in fact.

[Jason Kenney, Conservative, Calgary Midnapore, AB]

What was it in the last Dáil?

[Michael Gallagher]

It was fourteen, and before that, five.

[Jason Kenney, Conservative, Calgary Midnapore, AB]

So historically, into the last two elections, Sinn Fein had between zero and five seats. They were a marginal party. Is that correct?

[Michael Gallagher]

Yes. They never got beyond five seats until the last election, 2011, when they went up to 14.

[Jason Kenney, Conservative, Calgary Midnapore, AB]

What percentage of the final distributed vote did Sinn Fein candidates win in the last Dáil election?

[Michael Gallagher]

They won about 14% of the votes.

[Michael Marsh]

That's 14% of the first preferences, which is the figure we tend to look at.

[Jason Kenney, Conservative, Calgary Midnapore, AB]

So in a first past the post system, it would be reasonable to infer that they probably wouldn't win any seats. Is that right?

[Michael Gallagher]

Well, there are certain areas where they would be particularly strong. There is one near the border with Northern Ireland that's always been a strong Sinn Fein area. In a single-member constituency riding up there, Sinn Fein candidates might be the strongest. The result would be unpredictable, I would say.

[Jason Kenney, Conservative, Calgary Midnapore, AB]

Is it fair to say that in the PR-STV system, Sinn Fein does much better than it would in a first past the post system?

[Michael Gallagher]

It's unclear. We have a multi-party system now and how votes would be translated into seats under first past the post is unpredictable. You could get some parties getting a huge overrepresentation, while others might be very under-represented. It would be a bit random.

[Michael Marsh]

I think the party system we now have is completely incompatible with first past the post. First past the post is easy enough when you have two or three parties, but if you have six or seven, it's quite incompatible.

[Jason Kenney, Conservative, Calgary Midnapore, AB]

That sort of begs the question, does it not? The point is that the PR-STV system is an opportunity for smaller marginal parties to win more seats. Under that system, they grow and prosper as opposed to how they'd do in first past the post, which channels voters towards two or three major parties, typically, correct?

[Michael Gallagher]

Generally speaking, that's correct. The small parties don't do so well under PR, but sometimes it can work for them. A good example is the United Kingdom. In the last election, the Scottish nationalist party was hugely overrepresented. Even though their overall strength across the U.K. is not great, they're the dominant party in Scotland, so they won almost every seat there. So for some small parties with concentrated regional strength, first past the post can work to their advantage.

[Jason Kenney, Conservative, Calgary Midnapore, AB]

On that point, as a comparator, in the U.K., correct me if I'm wrong, UKIP has a plurality of seats from the United Kingdom in the European Parliament, which are are elected according to proportional representation. But they have only one seat in the Westminster Parliament, which is elected according to first past the post.

[Michael Gallagher]

That's right.

[Michael Marsh]

They also get a lot more votes in the European election than they do in the Westminster election.

[Jason Kenney, Conservative, Calgary Midnapore, AB]

For the edification of my colleagues who are not familiar, or viewers, Sinn Fein is a party that is historically the political wing of the IRA. It now has 23 seats in the Irish Dáil, with 14% of the vote. UKIP, which many would describe as a marginal party here, prospers in the PR system in the European Union, but has difficulty winning a single seat in the Westminster system. I think this underscores the point that sometimes marginal parties that are outside the political Overton window profit from PR systems.

[Michael Marsh]

Far be it from me to stand up for Sinn Fein, but there have been times when they've got close to a quarter of support in the opinion polls. So whether you like them or whether you don't, there are an awful lot of people who support them. If you look at people under 35, they're probably the most popular party in the country.

[The Chair, Liberal, Francis Scarpaleggia]

Thank you.

We'll go to Ms. Romanado, please.

[Sherry Romanado, Liberal, Longueuil—Charles-LeMoyne, QC]

Thank you so much.

I want to thank you again for talking a little bit about how we can increase engagement from women. You mentioned that only 22% of women make up your Parliament. Here in Canada we have 26%, so we still have a long way to go, and I want to thank you for identifying some of the solutions we can put into place to increase that.

One area we've wanted to increase participation in is our youth vote. At our last federal election we saw an increase of youth engaged, so what we've been doing on this committee is also inviting Canadians from coast to coast to coast to submit questions via Twitter. I have a Twitter question from Sebastian Muermann from British Columbia: Any studies on youth engagement in Irish elections? What kind of outreach is done in educational systems or in civic leadership?

[Michael Marsh]

Essentially, I think, very little. They're now beginning to teach about politics in schools for the first time, I understand, in the hope of engaging young people in politics rather more. We did have a referendum on same-sex marriage recently in which, on most accounts, engagement with younger voters was huge and they turned out in very large numbers. But there's no indication that those people then turned out at the next election. Again, I think I go back to, what's in it for them? Do they really see a value in voting? The feeling seems to be no, they don't. Who's to say they're wrong?