Evidence of meeting #33 for Environment and Sustainable Development in the 39th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was market.
A recording is available from Parliament.
10:30 a.m.
Liberal
Pablo Rodriguez Liberal Honoré-Mercier, QC
Just a moment, Mr. Chairman. I have a point of order.
With all due respect for my colleague, this is the same point of order as before. His question is biased and leading. The question is not whether we can meet the targets domestically. That is not the purpose of the bill.
The Parliamentary Secretary can't ask whether the bill will work if we remove this or that. Either the bill as a whole will allow us to meet the targets, or it won't.
10:30 a.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Bob Mills
I will ask our witnesses to answer based on the bill that's before them, which I know they've looked at.
Perhaps we could start with Mr. Alvarez, please. We have a minute and a half left.
10:30 a.m.
President, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
Certainly, and I will be brief.
Short of a complete collapse in the Canadian economy or the purchase of billions of dollars of foreign credits, we cannot meet the Kyoto target numbers.
10:30 a.m.
President, Greenhouse Emissions Management Consortium
In my package I did an analysis for you. The difference between my response and the others is that in my assessment, if we were willing to go to the international market and could find all the international credits we wanted, and if we were comfortable that they met our requirements and weren't hot air, I can't see any possibility of securing more than 91 million tonnes a year from the international market at any price.
To step back, this isn't theory. Our gap has two parts to it. Right now the gap constitutes 220 million tonnes of emissions that come out of existing plants in Canada, and there's 45 million tonnes of gap that's the presumed growth in emissions between now and 2012. I can only find 91 million tonnes in the international marketplace. This means that at a minimum, to comply with Kyoto, you would have to shut down 220 million tonnes minus 91 million tonnes worth of existing facilities. That's the physics of it.
10:30 a.m.
Conservative
10:30 a.m.
President, Greenhouse Emissions Management Consortium
At a minimum, that's one-third of the plants that currently report their greenhouse gas emissions to the Government of Canada. The list is in the public domain. You could go through the list and pick out which one in three plants you're shutting down.
People will posit that you can go to the international market and find 265 million tonnes, but I've been in the market for 11 years and can't find them—and that's before I put any reasonable criteria on the tonnes that I'm looking for.
10:30 a.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Bob Mills
Could we get Mr. Guilbeault's answer? Then, Ms. Gélinas, you had a comment.
10:30 a.m.
Campaigner, Climate and Energy, Greenpeace Canada
Actually, Mr. Chairman, I don't understand the question. We are being asked whether the Kyoto targets are based on science. Starting from that premise and looking at the scientific work that's been done by the European Union, for example, on Kyoto targets and the scientific implications of reduced greenhouse gas emissions, one really cannot help but conclude that this just is not enough for the first commitment. However, the Europeans are talking about -15 to -30 by 2020. So, I'm not sure I understand your question.
10:30 a.m.
Conservative
The Chair Conservative Bob Mills
I think the question, Mr. Guilbeault, is basically on the 260--or whatever that exact number is--megatons of carbon. Can we reduce that to 6% below 1990 levels by 2012--yes or no?
10:30 a.m.
Campaigner, Climate and Energy, Greenpeace Canada
That has nothing to do with science. I will just repeat what Ms. Gélinas said earlier in explaining her report, when she made the point that with the right leadership, it may be possible to meet Canada's Kyoto targets.
10:30 a.m.
Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development, Office of the Auditor General of Canada
I don't like to be left aside, so I would just like to add one thing. My report was very clear on one aspect. Can we meet the Kyoto target? I have turned that question back to the government: if it's not achievable, it's up to the government to let us know and give us some new targets. That's still the reality. You have the information; you're allowed to come back to Canadians and parliamentarians and tell us what the new target is if this one is not achievable. We will all work together to achieve those targets.
10:35 a.m.
Liberal
Francis Scarpaleggia Liberal Lac-Saint-Louis, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
I'd like Mr. Bramley to come back to the table. Is that possible? Something has been left hanging here.
10:35 a.m.
Conservative
10:35 a.m.
Liberal
10:35 a.m.
President, Greenhouse Emissions Management Consortium
Can I give one point? I dropped hot air out of the--
10:35 a.m.
Liberal
Francis Scarpaleggia Liberal Lac-Saint-Louis, QC
Yes, absolutely. You said you can't find enough credits.
Mr. Bramley, could we have your response to that, briefly? I have another question I'd like to ask the commissioner.
10:35 a.m.
Director, Climate Change, Pembina Institute
First of all, I think we heard a contradiction, because in her opening remarks Aldyen Donnelly said that the market was massively oversupplied; later she said she could only find 91 megatons, and those two things seem to contradict one another.
I would refer you initially to the testimony of Andrei Marcu to this committee. He said that under current scenarios there are 150 million tonnes of CDM credits available. I think he also said in his presentation that the supply is increasing all the time and that Canadian demand wouldn't have that much effect on prices.
10:35 a.m.
Liberal
Francis Scarpaleggia Liberal Lac-Saint-Louis, QC
If I may interrupt, Ms. Donnelly, how do you respond to that?
10:35 a.m.
President, Greenhouse Emissions Management Consortium
First of all, he's right; I did contradict myself, because I didn't stipulate, when I said I could only find 91 million tonnes, that the first thing I did was drop the hot air quota and credit out of the market before I went looking for the 91 million tonnes. As of November 29, the total number of projects that have been approved by the CDM market will generate 104 million tonnes a year. The CDM boards only issue 21 million CERs. Of those 104 million tonnes a year, only 15 million tonnes are not already on another country's progress report and incorporated in their accounts.
10:35 a.m.
Liberal
Francis Scarpaleggia Liberal Lac-Saint-Louis, QC
Thank you.
Go ahead, Mr. Bramley, and then I'd like to ask the commissioner a question.
10:35 a.m.
Director, Climate Change, Pembina Institute
I will just read from the testimony of Mr. Marcu, who said that the current offsets available in the CDM pipeline amount to about 1.2 billion credits. He said that probably you'd have to discount that a little bit to end up with 800 million, which are much bigger numbers that what we just heard.
