The market will collapse down to nothing, which is why a prudent investor is not participating in it.
And let's put the numbers in context. We all read about the value of the EU allowance market and we read about big numbers, but the January 1, 2005, to-date turnover of EU allowances--arm's-length turnover when I net out swaps--as a percentage of the stock of allowances that are in the market is 2.5%.
To put that in context, the EU phase one allowance supply exceeds the physical capacity of the covered facilities to emit by 11%. So before that market opened up, I presumed at least 11% of the supply would be turning over just because it's free. That really big number you keep reading about is 2.5%. It's 2.5% because almost everyone in the marketplace cannot make any sense of this market, because it's not a real market. So all they're doing right now is sitting on their allowances, saying, “I'm not going to play this game until it looks real to me.”