Evidence of meeting #60 for Environment and Sustainable Development in the 39th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was impact.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Director, Economic Studies and Policy Analysis Division, Department of Finance
We knew about it, but we were not consulted on the issue.
Bloc
Marcel Lussier Bloc Brossard—La Prairie, QC
So the issue is not one of funding, but of the maximum amount, which is 15 megatons, calculated at $20 a tonne. Were you not asked whether that would be an acceptable limit?
Assistant Deputy Minister, Economic Development and Corporate Finance, Department of Finance
It was part of the plan put forward by Environment Canada.
NDP
Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC
Thank you, Mr. Chair, and thanks to our witnesses.
I've been at presentations of Finance Canada before and there's always a written submission. Was there a decision not to? Were you hurried? Did you not have time?
Assistant Deputy Minister, Economic Development and Corporate Finance, Department of Finance
This file is more an Environment Canada file. We were consulted in the development of the file, but it's not per se a Department of Finance file, so we thought that time would be better spent answering your questions. It's not as if we have anything to add. There is a plan out there. There is a budget. We could have spent ten minutes talking about measures in the budget, but we are all familiar with those measures. I don't think we had anything substantial to add, other than policy.
NDP
Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC
When you're doing the budget and you're doing economic forecasting for the country, you consult externally; you use a number of different estimates of what the growth of the economy is. Is that correct? Or do you use just one estimate and then base budget predictions on that?
Director General, Economic and Fiscal Policy Branch, Department of Finance
We use an average from private sector forecasters, so we survey them for their view of the economy.
NDP
Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC
Without revealing state secrets, about how many do you typically use?
Director General, Economic and Fiscal Policy Branch, Department of Finance
About 15 to 20.
NDP
Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC
When we asked Environment Canada officials yesterday how many different groups were consulted in terms of the economic forecasting modelling, they used just one internally.
Director General, Economic and Fiscal Policy Branch, Department of Finance
They used one model to develop the baseline. That's correct, yes. However, they consulted four or five private sector economists.
NDP
Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC
Okay, that's interesting. We couldn't get that out of them.
Director General, Economic and Fiscal Policy Branch, Department of Finance
I'm sorry; I'm thinking of Bill C-288.
Director, Economic Studies and Policy Analysis Division, Department of Finance
They consulted with us about the base case for GDP growth in their model, and it matched roughly what we got as the average from private sector forecasters.
Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC
Again to be clear, in order to have some sort of veracity in your numbers, and knowing you're making predictions based upon solid accounting, in using 15 to 20 different estimates, we still can't determine how many the government actually used for their environmental forecasting. They wouldn't tell us.
The question I have is more of a fundamental question. When an environment minister from a previous government was here, I asked, why did greenhouse gases go up over a certain amount of time? His answer was that the economy also improved. Is it Finance Canada's opinion that with GDP growth, there must be growth in greenhouse gas emissions from the Canadian economy?
Director General, Economic and Fiscal Policy Branch, Department of Finance
It's not necessary that this happens. In fact, this plan suggests that over time this situation can be reversed. However, it is the case that given the structure and evolution of GDP for the longest period of time, greenhouse gas emissions have actually increased with economic activity.
NDP
Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC
Have we done any analysis in Canada as to the economic impacts of significant changes in average global temperatures, or temperatures within Canada—a Stern-like report, but for the Canadian economy? Has Finance Canada ever engaged in that?
Director General, Economic and Fiscal Policy Branch, Department of Finance
We have a number of studies on the website using general equilibrium models, primarily to look at the costs of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.
NDP
Nathan Cullen NDP Skeena—Bulkley Valley, BC
No, I'm sorry. To be clear, part of what Stern looked at was, imagining a two- to five-degree rise in global temperatures, what impact would that have on the world's GDP? Have we done the same thing for Canada? As we know, a two-degree global rise would actually be accelerated here in Canada. We'll have much higher temperatures than that. Have we done this analysis?
Director, Economic Studies and Policy Analysis Division, Department of Finance
At Finance?
Director, Economic Studies and Policy Analysis Division, Department of Finance
No.
