Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, for inviting me to testify this morning.
I'd like to say from the outset that I strongly support the spirit of the bill. You'll see in my testimony that I have included a paragraph from the statement from the Toronto conference on the changing atmosphere that was held in 1988. Very briefly, that statement says that humanity is conducting an unintended, uncontrolled, pervasive global experiment; that the earth's atmosphere is being changed at an unprecedented rate by pollutants from human activity; and that these changes represent a major threat to international security and are already having harmful consequences all over the world. That conference went on to set a target of a 20% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions below 1988 levels by 2005.
Those were heady days in the climate change business, Mr. Chairman. I was a lot younger. We were all a lot younger then. It was an exciting time. Today we appreciate much more how easy it is to call for an ambitious target and how difficult it is to achieve one.
Now, two decades later, we have much less time. Since 1988, global carbon dioxide emissions have risen by approximately 40% and are likely to rise by another 30% by 2030. The prediction we made using global climate models in the late eighties that the Arctic would warm faster than the rest of the globe has been confirmed. One recent study in Science magazine predicted that the Arctic would be free of ice by 2037, a mere 28 years from now. The early forecast we made in those days about the warming effects on forests have been confirmed, and unfortunately, our estimates of deaths from high-temperature events were tragically exceeded in Europe in 2003.
This, then, is the state of the physical world as it moves rapidly through a century that, in the end, may see the most profound changes since man began walking on this planet.
Mr. Chairman, not only are the physical changes occurring, but the political landscape is changing as well. At the last negotiating session of the UNFCC in Barcelona, the Chinese delegate said very clearly to developed country representatives that they are ahead us, and we need to catch up. In the case of China, it is not just rhetoric. Today China has automobile standards that exceed the recently enacted U.S. standards. They raised gasoline taxes four times this year. They have set a goal of 100 gigawatts of wind by 2020. Their target is to reduce energy intensity by 4% per year. To be quite frank, China wants to be the technology leader of the world, and they're now making PV panels and wind turbines that compete with companies from all over the world. In my opinion, Mr. Chairman, China gets it. They really do.
In my own country, President Obama has also changed the political landscape. His administration has allocated $80 billion of the stimulus financing to energy efficiency and renewable energy projects. Our Department of Energy is accelerating the introduction of new efficiency standards for appliances. The administration has also accelerated the introduction of efficiency standards for cars to 2016 from 2020. The EPA is moving forward to regulate carbon dioxide emissions from power plants. Twenty-eight states have renewable performance standards that set mandatory targets for the production of electricity from renewable energy.
On the congressional front, our House of Representatives has passed HR2454, the American Clean Energy and Security Act, and the Senate is moving forward to develop a complementary bill. Both bills are aimed at reducing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions to between 17% and 20% below 2005 levels by 2020 and to 83% below 2005 levels by 2050 under a cap. It would also allow for the use of offsets, and they have included performance standards for sources that are not covered by the cap. I would also say that the bill has set in motion a planning process for adaptation in the U.S., and it provides financing for adaptation and efforts to reduce deforestation in developing countries. But even in the absence of this bill, I think the President is intent on using the existing regulatory authority to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
This, then, is the direction in which two of your major economic competitors are moving and is one of the reasons why I would urge you to consider Bill C-311. While far from comprehensive, I believe it sets in motion a process that would allow Canada to resume its place among countries that are leading the fight against global warming. It would position Canada to become a technology leader and put your economy on a low-carbon pathway.
Let me add just a few comments on the bill itself.
The target of 25% reduction by 2020 from 1990 would be a significant challenge; there is no doubt about that. But if you are to achieve the long-term objective of an 80% reduction by 2050, Canada would need to be ambitious in the first decade, or else it would have to proceed much more quickly in subsequent decades.
If the minister chose to implement the plan through a cap and trade program—and I see that he has flexibility to issue regulations and other means—an important means to control costs would be the use of domestic and international offsets. Adding language to authorize the use of such a measure might be considered.
The bill deals with domestic GHG emissions, but the world expects much more. It expects assistance with regard to adaptation, encouraging technology cooperation, efforts to reduce deforestation. I would urge you to consider or at least not forget the need to address climate change in a comprehensive manner.
Implementation of the provisions also will require financial support. The U.S. ACES bill solves this problem by directing that a portion of the sale of allowances should be used for various activities such as carbon capture and storage. I trust that there is recognition of the financing that needs to accompany such a bill.
Finally, you may wish to authorize the minister to include black carbon in the target plan developed under clause 6. Black carbon is a pollutant that stays in the atmosphere for a relatively short time, but it changes the energy balance of the earth and may play an important role in warming, particularly in the Arctic.
In conclusion, Mr. Chairman, I don't believe the world can delay another decade in its fight against global warming. Canada can't afford to remain coupled to a carbon economy that is rooted in the past. I often hear people say that Canada will not act until the U.S. and others act. Well, I think the U.S. is acting; I think the rest of the world is acting. It's not going to be easy; it's not going to be a smooth transition; it's going to move in fits and starts. We're going to have conservative governments, we're going to have liberal governments, we're going to have Republicans, Democrats. The atmosphere all over the world will change from time to time in different leadership situations; but in fact I think we're going to move in that direction.
So I believe it is time for Canada to rekindle that spirit that was present in Toronto when I was a lot younger and to join the parade of low-carbon nations—not just join, but lead that parade.
Thank you, Mr. Chairman.