Yes, it's a very interesting subject. The brown spruce longhorn beetle is a species I'm particularly familiar with, both of us—as it were—being located here in Nova Scotia. It affords a particularly good opportunity to examine several important points that arise from my opening remarks.
The first is that we should have clear scientific evidence that the brown spruce longhorn beetle—I'll abbreviate it as the BSLB—is an invasive species before we jump to that conclusion and launch programs of quarantine, eradication, control, and various initiatives that restrict the movement of wood, all of which have been undertaken with regard to the BSLB. In order to obtain that kind of information, we need to undertake research that will shed light on whether this is so.
In the case of the BSLB, I must regrettably say that we do not have this evidence, and it's first and foremost because the Canadian Food Inspection Agency has not commissioned studies to determine this. As a consequence, 12 years have elapsed since the BSLB appeared on the Canadian radar, and substantial sums have been spent, chiefly by the federal government, on a variety of programs that, in my estimation, are almost certainly unnecessary. In the smallest possible nutshell, the BSLB is without doubt an alien species, but as I pointed out in my introductory remarks, not all alien species are invasive ones. Only a very small proportion of them are.
It's been very well studied in Europe, where it's not invasive, and there are many scientific reasons to believe that it's behaving no differently in Nova Scotia and in Canada than it is throughout its European range. There, they feed on dying trees that have reached a certain stage of ill health and form part of the natural processes of decay in the forest.
In Nova Scotia, they feed almost exclusively on red spruce, and I'd say two things. Scientists agree on two important points. One is that brown spruce longhorn beetles do not attack healthy trees, and two is that when a tree becomes of sufficiently ill health, the brown spruce longhorn beetles will feed on it.
So the essential question is whether that level of health is any different from that of many native longhorn beetles already common in our forests. If so, then the BSLB could be considered an invasive pest. If not, it simply joins an already existing suite of insects that, from an ecological perspective, do exactly the same thing that the BSLB does: help the natural processes of decayed composition and nutrient recycling in forest ecosystems.
Why don't we know the answer to this question? Well, because the CFIA has never asked it, and it has never commissioned the relatively simple and inexpensive scientific trials required to determine it. In my view, the decision was made at the outset by the CFIA to simply regard the BSLB as an invasive species, and there's been no attempt to actually provide evidence that this is so. A first and central principle of risk assessment and risk management is the determination of whether a species is actually a risk. Otherwise we fail to distinguish between bona fide invasive species and introduce species that are not.
There's another dimension to this issue that bears precisely on the topic of climate change. Since the 1960s, forest biologists have been documenting the declining health and vigour of red spruce in the United States. In some stands in northern New England, 30% to 60% of red spruce have experienced mortality, and there's been a lack of vigour in the surviving trees. There are similar concerns in the maritime provinces. Potential causes of this decline that have been examined include climate change; air pollution, particularly acid rain; insects; and disease. However, in one very important study in New York and western New England, investigators determined that climatic factors—that is to say, unusually warm summers, followed by unusual cold snaps in the winter—are important factors responsible for the decline.
Such increasingly pronounced fluctuations in the weather are precisely what is predicted to occur in the course of climate change. Consequently, it would be reasonable to expect that as climate change proceeds, red spruce in eastern Canada will be affected by such weather fluctuations, will suffer corresponding declines in health and vigour, and consequently that more suitable habitat will be available for the BSLB and many other native species. If this comes to pass, we may see a significant deterioration of red spruce in the coming decades, one not caused by invasive species but by climate change itself. In other words, the BSLB may be a symptom of the problem and not its cause.
So that's really how these two forces come together in relation to this particular species. We need to know whether it's invasive before we take other remedial action.