I thank the committee for this invitation to appear as a witness.
My name is Isabelle Turcotte, and I am the director of the federal policy program at Pembina Institute.
We really thank you for the opportunity to share our views on the important role Canada can play to provide leadership internationally on climate action. I'll first comment on how we're progressing on implementing our pan-Canadian plan on climate change. Then I'll make a few comments on how we can sustain progress and where we can increase ambition.
Canada's credibility on climate on the international stage really rests on its ability to successfully implement the PCF, the climate action plan, or the measures to achieve our 2030 target under Paris, and further, to extend this ambition in line with international expectations. Canada successfully completed the first vital step in implementing the PCF in April, and became a global leader with the world's first comprehensive national methane regulations. That's wonderful news. This work, however, is not finished. The government must now work with provinces that will likely seek equivalency agreements—that's B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan—to make sure that the federal regulations are not undermined by weak equivalency agreements.
A second critical piece of the PCF is the commitment to phasing out coal by 2030. Final regulations are expected before the end of the year. Similar to what I mentioned for the methane regulations, it will be really important that we get ambitious mitigation outcomes, as intended by the federal regulations, if we are to get equivalency agreements with New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan, which are very likely to request those agreements. Not succeeding in meeting that target of completely phasing out coal by 2030 would really impact Canada's credibility in the Powering Past Coal Alliance, of which we are a founding member. I'll touch on this a little later on.
Importantly, the coal regulations alone are not enough to ensure that we meet our target of reaching 90% non-emitting generation by 2030. We need additional measures to ensure that a significant portion of the coal we're taking out is actually replaced by renewables, storage, efficiency and demand-side management instead of natural gas. A clean grid is really an essential enabler to then move on to deep decarbonization in other sectors.
As part of the comprehensive plan to tackle climate change, the federal government is also making sure that polluters are held accountable across the country by applying a price on carbon. Today is a great day for Canada, as we've heard, with the earlier announcement on the application of the backstop and the use of revenues. I think this is cause for celebration.
This measure will cut carbon pollution by 50 million to 60 million tonnes by 2022. To put this into perspective, to meet our target under Paris, we need to cut emissions by 215 million tonnes. We really can't do it without carbon pricing. We applaud today's announcement on the backstop application. From there, we really look forward to seeing the level of ambition increase, with the standards under the output-based pricing system becoming more stringent and the price increasing beyond 2022.
Among other measures to reduce emissions from transportation, the PCF is also committing to updating vehicle emissions standards and putting more zero-emissions vehicles on the road. We now have a really important moment before us on vehicle regulations. Our regulations have historically been in lockstep with the U.S. Following the recent U.S. decision to block the increase of the fuel economy standard at the 2021 level, we have to move really quickly to make sure that we are on course and that we hold strong on existing regulations.
Across the world, as jurisdictions successfully clean up their electricity sources, they're also rapidly moving to electrify downstream sectors like transportation. Canada signed on to the EV30@30 campaign at the Global Climate Action Summit, which means we now have a target for at least 30% of new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030. This is great news. Moving forward, we really look forward to seeing the Canadian government back this up with meaningful action to accelerate EV uptake.
Canada could consider joining the transport decarbonisation alliance, which unites leading cities, countries and companies to transform the global transport sector to a net-zero-emission mobility system before 2050.
International leadership on transportation should not be limited to passenger vehicles. Canada took another step in implementing the PCF by announcing updated standards for heavy-duty vehicles. Now is really the time to help the trucking industry implement the technologies that will help it meet these standards. Canada can learn by joining initiatives like the global Drive to Zero pledge. Its members are working together to coordinate activities and share strategies and best practices to build and support actions to drive the uptake of these technologies and build the associated markets.
To summarize this quick PCF implementation review, we can say that Canada has made progress, but the work is not over. Significantly, efforts have to be made to continue to translate the PCF commitments into policies and regulatory mechanisms, and to then implement these policies to get reductions on the ground.
Let's now consider the need for increasing ambition to align with international expectations. The full suite of the policies under the PCF still leaves us with a 66-megatonne gap towards meeting our target under Paris. Consequently, Canada has to seize every opportunity to really extend and strengthen the PCF policies. I gave a few examples of how to do this. We also have to find additional ways to reduce emissions. The Climate Institute will play a crucial role in providing forward-looking and credible advice on how we can do this, in addition to tracking our progress, and the Canadian government should definitely ensure that the institute is fully equipped to play this role.
To fulfill or exceed domestic efforts to curb emissions, as Keith mentioned, article 6 of the Paris Agreement provides for the acquisition of ITMOs. While we recognize the important role that ITMOs can play to stimulate a new round of innovation and co-operative approaches, we also have some concerns with the use of ITMOs. We encourage the federal government to continue to engage in the development of the rules on ITMOs to ensure that the following principles are respected: ITMOs should safeguard the environmental integrity of reductions; double counting should not occur; ITMOs should be voluntary and authorized by parties; ITMOs should support NDC implementation in both countries; and, most importantly, as Keith mentioned, ITMOs should support ambition, and so they should support going beyond each country's target.
Importantly, the federal government should develop its own national ITMO regime, with a mechanism to ensure that the principles l listed are respected, by establishing clear rules on domestic ITMO use, including what types of credits are acceptable, standards on MRV, and limitations on use.
In addition to strengthening and fully implementing the PCF and developing an ITMO strategy, as I've just mentioned, Canada must commit to setting a more ambitious target for 2030 by 2020. Indeed, at COP24 in December, Canada, along with all other parties, will be expected to signal that it will strengthen its commitment. This new target must be consistent with the IPCC 1.5°C report, meaning that to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C, global emissions must be reduced by 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050.
Canada does have a mid-century strategy. We also joined the carbon neutrality coalition. As a member, Canada must now commit to publishing a detailed plan on how it will get to carbon neutrality by 2050.
There's a really important opportunity for Canada to continue to play a leading role internationally, and it's through the Powering Past Coal Alliance. I'll just quickly wrap up by saying that we look forward to seeing the PPCA take more substantive steps with our members towards enabling each other to implement the decarbonization of the electricity sector, and we also look forward to seeing how it equips itself to deliver these services to maintain momentum.
The last point I'll make is that Canada also has a huge role to play in being a champion for carbon pricing internationally, especially by engaging with the private sector.
Thank you.