I'll start, and then others with more models can....
I don't think that was the message. I think the message was that the impacts would be fairly small. Most economic modelling shows, in some cases, small negative impacts on trend but not at the scale that we've heard talked about this week of recession or causing economic growth to disappear. You are taking about something that was previously a cost imposed globally on others, and you are bringing some of those costs here. You have to take that with a grain of salt.