Thanks very much for the opportunity to chat about this important issue.
I will draw today on a recent report from my colleagues at the Canadian Climate Institute, Rachel Samson, Don Drummond and Peter Phillips. That paper takes an economic perspective on fossil fuel subsidies. It assesses whether government measures support or hinder Canada's long-term economic growth and a smooth transition for workers and communities, especially in the face of the accelerating decarbonization in global markets.
Our research moves away from definitions of “subsidy” and “inefficiency”. It assesses policy according to four criteria. These are transition consistency, value for money, employment outcomes and policy fit.
I'll draw out three specific findings.
First, the global low-carbon transition is a structural shift, not a temporary shock. While governments can be tempted to insulate businesses, workers and communities from market change, impacted sectors and regions will ultimately be better off with strategies that help them prepare for and thrive in the emerging low-carbon economy.
Second, the fossil fuel sector is no longer the secure source of economic growth and job creation that it once was. Coal, oil and gas demand will decline globally, though there is uncertainty on the timing and slope of that decline over the next decade. Public investment in long-lived fossil fuel assets now carries more risk and less certain benefits for society, even within the context of current upheavals in energy markets.
Third, governments must make tough choices in allocating scarce public funds. Public investment in decarbonizing fossil fuel production could generate fewer economic benefits than investment in areas that could capture a share of growing, transition-opportunity markets, such as hydrogen, mining of battery minerals, or low-carbon steel production.
This takes me to five quick recommendations.
The first is that public support for oil and gas firms should prioritize pivots to new, transition-consistent business lines. Carbon capture, utilization and storage, for example, will have the biggest long-term benefits in carbon removal or in addressing process emissions in heavy industry, rather than decarbonizing existing oil and gas production.
Second, Canada should maximize scarce public dollars by making public investments complementary to carbon pricing and other regulatory policies, rather than financing company compliance with those measures. For example, improving methane regulations would be a better approach to reducing oil and gas fugitive emissions than funding those reductions via the NRCan emissions reductions fund.
Third, Canada should explicitly consider future global and domestic market conditions and the risk of stranded assets in all policy decisions. For example, Export Development Canada should continue to ramp down its exposure to fossil fuel production.
Fourth, Canada should focus on mobilizing private investment and sharing risk, rather than fully shifting risk from private companies to public entities. For example, support for cleaning up orphan oil and gas wells should be temporary and targeted at firms most at risk of bankruptcy.
Finally, Canada should prioritize ensuring that new policy measures support transition success, for example, the federal carbon capture, utilization and storage investment tax credit. It can then move toward more difficult measures, such as phasing out fuel and carbon tax exemptions for agriculture.
Thank you very much, and I look forward to your questions.