Evidence of meeting #120 for Environment and Sustainable Development in the 44th Parliament, 1st Session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was forest.
A recording is available from Parliament.
September 18th, 2024 / 6:15 p.m.
Conservative
Assistant Deputy Minister, Biodiversity and Canadian Wildlife Services, Department of the Environment
It's something that would be a subject of consideration—
Assistant Deputy Minister, Biodiversity and Canadian Wildlife Services, Department of the Environment
—in the context of the critical habitat for boreal caribou.
Conservative
Conservative
Conservative
Branden Leslie Conservative Portage—Lisgar, MB
Thank you.
I'll start with you, Mr. Hermanutz.
The analysis states, “If the emergency order goes ahead, there would be 10 mining projects shut down at a cost of $20 million to $45 million.” Did you calculate what job loss would be associated with that too?
Director General, Economic Analysis Directorate, Department of the Environment
On the mining side, I don't have those numbers in front of me. I think the analysis suggests that those are projects that are at risk and are part of the analysis. It doesn't say that those projects will necessarily be shut down.
Conservative
Branden Leslie Conservative Portage—Lisgar, MB
I understand that.
In your analysis, it concludes that “about 1,400 direct forest sector jobs could vanish” if Minister Guilbeault's radical order is enacted, which is a little bit lower than that of many industry experts but is still a very substantial number.
Could you describe for us what you think would be the impacts on the communities where those 1,400 people would be if this order were enacted as per the modelling that you've done?
Director General, Economic Analysis Directorate, Department of the Environment
I can start with the analysis that we've done. That was with the Canadian Forest Service.
According to NRCan and the Canadian Forest Service, approximately 1,400 direct forest sector jobs may be at risk. Again, that doesn't mean that they're necessarily—
Director General, Economic Analysis Directorate, Department of the Environment
This was our best analysis at the time.
Conservative
Director General, Economic Analysis Directorate, Department of the Environment
That is direct jobs. We do look at indirect jobs. There could be 800 at risk, as we have in the analysis.
Conservative
Branden Leslie Conservative Portage—Lisgar, MB
That's the maximum. You think that if you enact this, there is no chance that more than 2,200 jobs are destroyed by this—
Director General, Economic Analysis Directorate, Department of the Environment
No. There is obviously uncertainty around this. It could be higher and it could be lower. It's in the middle of our range. I would stress, as the minister said, that this is very preliminary analysis. We're looking forward to the results of the consultations.
Conservative
Branden Leslie Conservative Portage—Lisgar, MB
In the contingent analysis, you discuss that the radical emergency order could “lower Canada's reputation as a reliable mining destination”, which we've already seen plummet due to the over-regulation under this most recent Liberal government's decisions.
What dollar value would you put on the reputational damage that could be done if we took this approach?
Director General, Economic Analysis Directorate, Department of the Environment
First, that's a comment that comes from our NRCan experts on the mining sector. I don't think you can quantify that in dollar terms.
Conservative
Branden Leslie Conservative Portage—Lisgar, MB
Between ECCC and NRCan, do you think you have a full grasp of the potential ramifications of this decision if enacted?
Director General, Economic Analysis Directorate, Department of the Environment
I think at the macro level, we do. We're looking forward to getting more information from the consultations on individual mills and communities.
Liberal
Sophie Chatel Liberal Pontiac, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Ms. Shannon, we were just talking about reputational damage. In Europe, they are in the process of establishing standards for the purchase of forest products that meet our COP15 commitments and those related to the protection of biodiversity. International forums are talking about it. If we don't protect species at risk, what will be the reputational price that Canada will pay, particularly when exporting our forest products?
