Evidence of meeting #8 for Environment and Sustainable Development in the 45th Parliament, 1st session. (The original version is on Parliament’s site, as are the minutes.) The winning word was climate.
A recording is available from Parliament.
Conservative
Carol Anstey Conservative Long Range Mountains, NL
Based on that, wouldn't you also agree that investment into offshore projects and exploration would be more beneficial for our economy than relying on these imports?
Former Member, National Energy Board, As an Individual
Sure. Canada has tended to focus on the potential economic impacts of climate change. This is a pressing issue that's emerged since the impact of declining direct foreign investment in the energy sector. These divestments that are happening in Canada reflect the concerns of major international investors, not just Canadians. In 2024 the flow of Canadian net investment reached a record negative $36 billion. This indicates that international investment capital is increasingly seeking jurisdictions other than Canada. Those jurisdictions are producing competitive oil.
The material decline in direct foreign investment in Canada has contributed, from 2015 to 2024, to a very diminished GDP growth of 2% for Canada as compared with 14% in the United States. These are economic issues that Canadians should be aware of and that our decision-makers and policy-makers should be taking into account.
Conservative
Carol Anstey Conservative Long Range Mountains, NL
Just quickly, on those points, would removing the emissions cap be part of the solution, in your view?
Former Member, National Energy Board, As an Individual
The question is how to implement an emissions cap that is consistent and fair across jurisdictions and that benefits the Canadian economy. If Canada inflicts itself with an emissions cap while importing non-decarbonized oil, that's a very difficult situation for our economy.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono
Thank you, Mr. Wallace.
Thank you, Ms. Anstey.
Mr. St‑Pierre, you have the floor for five minutes.
Liberal
Eric St-Pierre Liberal Honoré-Mercier, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Mr. Matthews, I am a proud graduate of Concordia University and I am proud to welcome a member of my alma mater here today.
You've done a lot of modelling on climate change. Does it look like Quebec will meet its 37.5% emissions reduction target by 2030?
Professor, Concordia University and Interim Director, Future Earth Canada, As an Individual
I believe Quebec is closer to achieving its target than the country as a whole. I don't have the exact trajectory in my head to be able to give you a more precise answer than that. Quebec has a lot of advantages. Obviously, the electrical system is already highly decarbonized.
I'm sorry. Speaking of decarbonized energy sources, I can't not comment that it's actually not possible to decarbonize oil. That's a bit like trying to deoxygenate air. It removes the entire use of the compound.
In any case, Quebec does have some advantages, but it also has challenges. Transportation and buildings are the largest sources of emissions. Quebec is also further ahead than the other provinces in terms of electrifying transportation, but there's still work to be done.
Liberal
Eric St-Pierre Liberal Honoré-Mercier, QC
Thank you.
My colleague mentioned the concept of fair reduction of emissions,
and that there's a different concept of reducing emissions globally.
Could you tell us more about Quebec's fair share in reducing emissions? Could you also share any documents you might have showing that Quebec is doing its fair share and is on its way to meeting its reduction targets?
Professor, Concordia University and Interim Director, Future Earth Canada, As an Individual
There's not a lot of literature on fair shares within countries. In the absence of a better answer, I would say that Quebec's fair share is sort of equivalent to Canada's on a per capita basis, or ultimately on an emissions share basis. There are different ways you can break it down, but ultimately, the entire country needs to achieve net-zero emissions by a particular date. Quebec has that same obligation.
Liberal
Eric St-Pierre Liberal Honoré-Mercier, QC
Could you talk about the important role the provinces play in helping the federal government meet its 2030 emissions reduction target?
October 20th, 2025 / 12:35 p.m.
Professor, Concordia University and Interim Director, Future Earth Canada, As an Individual
Absolutely provinces are key. I think the federal government can incentivize and leverage action at the provincial level, but the provinces have jurisdiction over energy, which is the big producer of emissions across the country.
Yes, the provinces need to act equally ambitiously—if not more so, in some cases, than the federal government.
Liberal
Eric St-Pierre Liberal Honoré-Mercier, QC
You've also done a lot of work on carbon budgets. Could you talk about their importance? What is the difference between carbon budgets and the 2030 target?
Professor, Concordia University and Interim Director, Future Earth Canada, As an Individual
The carbon budget is based on the concept that total emissions of carbon dioxide are the quantity that determines how much warming occurs. You can have an emissions target and you can approach that target in different ways. Those different pathways will give you different total amounts of CO2 emitted and other greenhouse gases. You will actually produce different amounts of climate warming depending on how you approach the target, whereas the carbon budget approach, if applied as it has been in countries like the U.K., for example, sets a limit on the total quantity of CO2 and other greenhouse gases emitted rather than on a particular target at a particular moment in time. It's a much more trackable and accountable way of tracking and reporting emissions. It's one that actually gauges correctly the climate impact of those emissions.
Liberal
Eric St-Pierre Liberal Honoré-Mercier, QC
We're also hearing about the perceived cost of climate policy.
Can you speak to the cost of climate inaction?
Professor, Concordia University and Interim Director, Future Earth Canada, As an Individual
We are seeing the cost of climate inaction across the country almost monthly. Insurance premiums are going up across the country and the insurance industry in general is very aware of these costs as a threat to the industry and its ability to provide coverage.
Wildfires and heat waves are a threat. Heat waves are probably the leading cause of mortality from climate change, but wildfires and floods obviously cause huge damage that is linked to climate change. The cost associated with this damage is all part and parcel of the cost of climate inaction.
Liberal
Eric St-Pierre Liberal Honoré-Mercier, QC
If Canada could choose one or two federal policies to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which ones would you pick?
Professor, Concordia University and Interim Director, Future Earth Canada, As an Individual
I would say that every new piece of infrastructure we build needs to be carbon-free.
Liberal
The Chair Liberal Angelo Iacono
Thank you, Mr. Matthews. Thank you, Mr. St‑Pierre.
Mr. Bonin, you have the floor. You may go ahead for two and a half minutes.
Bloc
Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC
Thank you, Mr. Chair.
Mr. Matthews, you recommend that Canada follow the U.K.'s lead and adopt carbon budgets. Would you recommend other measures adopted by the U.K. or other countries to manage emissions reduction plans?
Professor, Concordia University and Interim Director, Future Earth Canada, As an Individual
The U.K. has a very competent and well-respected climate change committee that has been, among other things, responsible for recommending the adoption of the carbon budget approach. Among industrialized nations in Europe and North America, the U.K. is on track to achieve its emissions targets, which is a rarity. Not only has it set carbon budgets for every five years and adhered to those, it is actually ahead of its proposed emission targets.
It mostly has to do with decarbonizing the energy supply system in addition to all the other things that can be done around promoting energy efficiency and low-carbon choices for consumers.
Bloc
Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC
Thank you.
Mr. Wallace, you mentioned oil imports and exports. As far as I know, Canada exports twice as much oil as it consumes. Do you have numbers that compare Canada's oil imports and exports?
Former Member, National Energy Board, As an Individual
Thank you for your question.
I don't have figures at hand. However, as I noted in my introductory comments, I did provide a report to the committee. I believe that some of those figures may be.... I won't bore you by going back into that report; I will just refer you to it, if I may.
Bloc
Patrick Bonin Bloc Repentigny, QC
You talked about carbon capture and sequestration. I think Shell is working on a project like that in Canada. Has such a project been developed in Canada? How effective is it at capturing emissions? I thought I saw that Shell's project captured barely 50% of emissions. Is that accurate? What's the per-tonne cost of carbon for those projects?
Former Member, National Energy Board, As an Individual
There is a very good example, which I refer to in my report, that's been operating in Saskatchewan. It is an EOR, or enhanced oil recovery, where the sequestrated carbon is reinjected and oil, at pressure, is forced back up. This is a very positive situation.