Let me put it this way: Nobody has a crystal ball.
The AI researchers, I think, as you alluded to, disagree among themselves about the different scenarios, so the rational way of thinking about this is that there are different scenarios. Some are incredibly, fantastically good, and others are terrible. People talk about human extinction and many things in between.
The responsibility of public policy here is to invest, to make sure we see through this fog better as we move forward and to make sure that we avoid the catastrophic cases of risks of upending our democracies or even creating monsters that could turn against humans. For all of these, there are computer science arguments explaining how it could happen.
If I had more time, I could—