Let me be brief, but talk generally and then more specifically about productivity.
When we put together the projection that goes into our monetary policy report, we draw on analysis from a number of different sources, including our regional offices that are constantly in contact with provincial governments and businesses across the country.
We gather quite a bit of input as we make our decisions and in the end come to a judgment as to what we think are the trends in the Canadian economy. Of course, as you rightly point out, we need to have a sense of what the future looks like, because monetary policy operates with lags. What we do or might do today would affect the economy out over a year to a year and a half.
On the productivity side, we look at the history of productivity growth. We are out talking to businesses and associations, trying to get a sense of what they are doing.
In the end, a lot of it is judgment. But it is critical for us is to have a well-defined paradigm to think about these issues, so that as events unfold, we can assess them in a very logical, coherent framework that leads to judgments about monetary policy.