First I'll answer the questions, then perhaps Mr. Askari and Mr. Matier can add information.
For the numbers that were released today we did not, as we said, have time to do a model-based fiscal projection based on the changed economic numbers, so we used sensitivities. We have detailed sensitivities that we can look at: if the unemployment rate changes, or if GNP changes, what the impact on unemployment insurance is, or what the impact is on tax bases. We have used those sensitivities.
Primarily in the numbers that we've used.... Higher numbers were reported today, but we're looking at a deficit for 2009 of roughly, we're saying, $38 billion, compared with roughly $34 billion for budget 2009, so it's roughly $4 billion or $5 billion higher. It's pretty much the same thing for 2008. This difference primarily reflects the lower GNP numbers, which is the broadest measure we have of income to support the tax base.
What we've noted here today is that we're looking at a much weaker labour market—as you've noted today, sir. Our unemployment rate on average is going to be about a full percentage point higher for 2009. According to the private sector forecasters, we're seeing employment, which in the budget forecast was down about 0.5% in 2009, down now about 2% on a year-over-year basis in 2009.
I'll ask Mostafa and Chris whether or not there's some upside risk to the deficit numbers we presented here as a result of the fact that we have not done a full model-based scenario, particularly related to the issue of a weaker labour market.