It's a combination effort. We have surveyed eight private sector forecasters for 2009 and 2010 and the numbers we're presenting for the first two quarters reflect the monitoring we've done. We will be releasing a document early next week that will detail exactly what we expect for the first and second quarters. So we've basically overlaid with this an additional level of detail, because these, as you say, are historic numbers, so we will provide a very detailed tracking of what's going on.
What it does reflect, though, are a lot of negative forces that we're seeing coming through the fourth quarter, a very sharp decline, sir, in December of 2008. We have a number of high-frequency indicators for the first part of 2009, export indicators, manufacturing shipment indicators, data on retail sales, and we've seen the labour market numbers as well, so we have quite a bit of information now for the first quarter. But when you see the level of transparency it will provide in the first half of the year with the reports we'll release early next week, I think you'll be quite comforted in the level of detail.
So to back up, it reflects the private sector monitoring, plus our own detailed assessment. We've taken it a step further.