You're quite right that the labour market has probably shocked a lot of people, particularly in the fourth quarter of 2008, in that the numbers turned much weaker. We've seen pretty much full employment level loss since the spring of 2008, and then we saw fairly significant declines in full-time employment in the months of October and November, and significant losses, as you suggested, in all-time, full- and part-time, of about 100,000 in October and November.
Private sector projections in general, on which the Department of Finance has based its forecast, have the unemployment rate rising from current levels of about 6.6% to about 7.5%, which would be somewhat less than the kind of job loss reported by the Toronto Dominion Bank—the numbers that were recently released. What underscores that is almost with each week, as we saw the economy becoming weaker, I think most economists were surprised by the release of the November GDP numbers—a 0.7% decline in real GDP of significant output loss in November. The economy gets continually weaker and weaker right now, which underscores the need for monthly monitoring.
On the numbers in the report, in the budget the government estimates a 140,000 net job creation based on federal stimulus and a 190,000 job creation based on total stimulus. Those numbers do look weak relative to the amount of stimulus we're trying to put into the economy. They may merit some further look to see whether they've actually underestimated the job loss that may actually come from that infrastructure type of investment. We don't have an independent assessment right now as to what the net job creation would be, but again, in the context of what you said earlier, sir, there is now a need to monitor the job loss on a month-to-month basis.