The easiest shorthand for the real world examples is to look at the risks to our projection. These include a deeper global recession than envisioned, so that the famous second derivative is not as positive as we'd like and the bottoming out—to some extent the slowing of the decline—that is expected in the second quarter and into the third quarter and then up does not materialize. Clearly there are delays in progress on the stabilization of the financial system. There is a lot that needs to be done. Nobody is going to wave a flag and say it's over, but I think we'll know when we see major hiccups. The lack of progress will be clearer than the presence of progress. It will be slowly built up, in that regard.
I would say those are the two fundamental issues. While we see at this point some choppiness in the data, for example, in the U.S., where there is some positive and some negative and the negative still outweighs the positive, we see some stabilization in upticks in some of the softer data—the survey data, consumer confidence, business confidence, purchasing managerial indices around the world—but I would caution that they are coming from very low bases and this is a very recent improvement. So there is a lot still to be done in order to establish that return from what is a deep recession.