Well, I prefer to provide our own independent view. You can see whether it lines up with the governor's comments.
But on your opening point, Mr. Menzies, in terms of the numbers, the outcome, and what it will feel like for many Canadians in different parts of the country, I would say, as I highlighted today in my speaking points, that when the economy is operating well below its potential.... We estimate that in the third quarter of 2009 we're about five percentage points below where we'd be if the economy was fully employed and if we had a sense that capital were fully employed. It's well below its trend rate.
When you compare that with where we were in the 1980s when we had a severe recession, which is when I started my public service career, there's a lot of pain out there in terms of loss of output. As you've noted, when you look at industrial production numbers, they're down, in double-digit ranges in real terms. If you look at unemployment in the goods sector or industry, it's down 8% relative to an average of 2%.
So if you are in those towns that are affected.... For instance, sir, I grew up in Thunder Bay, and I see some of my old friends who have lost their jobs in the forestry industry and are concerned about whether or not those are coming back. So how it feels depends sometimes on where you're at.
In terms of the fragility of the outlook and when we might get back to our potential, our own numbers suggest—and I think they're quite consistent with what the OECD and the IMF suggest—that it will be something more like the end of 2013 when the economy will be back at its trend level, which is a bit longer than what you alluded to regarding what Mr. Carney said to you just a few days earlier, sir.
When you look at the IMF's analysis of what happens to economies after financial crises and the debt bubbles we have and all the de-leveraging that takes on, you tend to see more of a U-shaped type of recovery. That's consistent as well with analysis done by professors at Harvard and at the University of Maryland as well, who have examined this over many different countries' experiences.
If you look at our output gap and the projections that are in our report today, the private sector is basically saying it will be more like a V-shaped recovery. Even with the economic recovery in 2013, in our report it actually looks more V-shaped than U-shaped. If you look at the output gap experience in the 1990s, it looks like a much more U-shaped experience.
It's in that context, sir, that we say the risks are more on the downside, that this could last a little bit longer, and that we could see growth much closer to trend growth rates in 2010, which is where some of the private sector forecasts are, at around two and a half per cent as opposed to well above trend, which I think is where the Bank of Canada is for 2010.
We'll have to wait and see, but that's certainly where the uncertainty and risk lie.