We've spent a lot of time today talking about uncertainty and risk and whether we're confident about any of these numbers. For the third quarter, when we see the quarterly numbers come out, we think you could quite easily get a number around 1% growth.
We've been fooled a little bit by looking at the monthly basic price industry output data on a month-to-month basis in the past, but we think that in the third quarter you'll see, because of the information we've seen on retail sales, relatively strong growth in retail sales, and in consumption we'll see some bounce-back.
We'll see continued strength in the government sector. We'll probably see a little bit of bounce in the investment sector. Even in trade, where we've had eight consecutive quarters of declining real net exports, we'll probably see the first boost in exports in the third quarter. It will be a small boost. What will weigh down the growth numbers there will probably be imports.
So we think 1% is possible for the third quarter.