As we noted in our speech today, if spending is lower than projected for these stimulus measures, particularly infrastructure, we could see a deficit this year that is smaller than what the government is projecting.
We're assuming, on the infrastructure spending, that if the money does not go out the door this year, it will roll forward into the future year. We're not arguing whether that's a good thing or a bad thing, but if you look at our output gap measures, the economy is very weak right now and will continue to be weak even until next year.
We have raised the risk that money would be lapsed this year, based on lapse history. We have raised additional risks in recent days. In speaking with some municipalities, we've heard that it's difficult to get the money out in the two-year timeframe. Some of those municipalities suggested that we should look at the two-year timeframes we allowed for the infrastructure fiscal stimulus program.
So there are some of those risks. Certainly a lapse would mean a smaller deficit. It would mean potentially, if you roll it over, more spending next year. But even the timeframes are pretty short.